Goldman Warns: Hormuz Closure Could Push Brent Over $100 Until 2026
Goldman Sachs has issued a warning regarding oil prices, indicating that the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel. According to analysts, this scenario could persist throughout 2026 if restrictions remain in place.
Implications of the Strait of Hormuz Closure
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains critical. Following a recent two-week ceasefire announcement between the U.S. and Iran, concerns about oil supply have intensified. Goldman Sachs adjusted its price expectations for crude oil in light of these developments.
The bank’s analysts have outlined multiple scenarios for oil pricing. One primary scenario assumes that the Strait of Hormuz will remain largely inaccessible for another month, which could result in a significant increase in oil prices. In this case, Brent crude could average over $100 per barrel through the second half of 2026.
Status of Maritime Traffic
The ceasefire, while a positive development, is contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran continues to exert control over vessel movements and has not provided clarity on transit rules.
- Maritime intelligence firm Windward noted that all transits still require coordination with Iranian armed forces.
- The firm emphasized that the strait remains under a “supervised pause” and has not officially reopened.
Shipping companies are hesitant to proceed without further security assurances. As uncertainty lingers, oil prices reacted positively, climbing approximately 3% early Thursday amid the ongoing crisis.
Projected Price Ranges for Brent Crude
If the limited tanker traffic continues beyond the next month, analysts predict even higher average prices for Brent crude. According to Goldman Sachs:
- Brent crude could average $120 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026.
- Prices may settle around $115 for the final quarter of the year.
The geopolitical dynamics surrounding the Strait of Hormuz are critical for global oil markets. Continuous monitoring of the situation is essential, as developments will impact pricing and supply chains.
For more insights and updates on oil market trends, visit Filmogaz.com.
