Armenia and Azerbaijan Strengthen Trade Ties, Challenging Russia’s Influence
Armenia and Azerbaijan have ramped up commercial ties in recent months. Observers say the trade boost could ease Armenia’s longtime blockade and support peace efforts.
Some analysts describe the shift as Armenia and Azerbaijan Strengthen Trade Ties, Challenging Russia’s Influence. They note Moscow’s focus on the war in Ukraine has opened room for new arrangements.
Energy shipments and market impact
Azerbaijan began sending fuel to Armenia in December. The first deliveries arrived by train, with 22 wagons of gasoline reported.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian said in mid-January that most premium gasoline now comes from Azerbaijan. He added that minimum pump prices fell by about 15 percent.
Armenia imported roughly 490,000 tons of petrol and related fuels last year. About two-thirds of that volume came from Russia.
Transit routes and corridors
Azerbaijan is already acting as a transit country for grain. Official Azerbaijani figures show about 23,000 tons of Russian wheat moved to Armenia via Azerbaijan.
The same statistics record roughly 700 tons of fertilizer transiting through Azerbaijan. Baku agreed last year to expand its transit role.
The US-backed TRIPP corridor was signed in Washington last August. It aims to link mainland Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan exclave.
Georgia and Iran as transit considerations
Armenia has long relied on Georgia for most trade access. International sanctions have limited Armenia’s use of Iran as an alternative route.
| Partner | Share of Armenia’s Foreign Trade |
|---|---|
| Russia | 35.5% |
| China | 12.5% |
| European Union | 11.8% |
Political shifts and security concerns
The two countries fought over Nagorno-Karabakh for decades. Azerbaijan regained control of Karabakh in 2023.
A Washington peace summit in August 2025 helped break a long stalemate. But leaders still face hard domestic demands.
Yerevan froze its participation in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. Baku criticized Moscow over the late-2024 downing of an Azerbaijani airliner.
Baku insists Armenia change constitutional language tied to Karabakh. Without a final treaty, the peace remains fragile.
Analysts’ assessments
Joshua Kucera of the International Crisis Group says resolving the conflict is the primary goal. He adds relations with outside powers come second.
Research fellow Emily Babakanian Frazier warns Armenia could be vulnerable if energy links are cut. Immediate supply disruptions seem unlikely, she says.
Border access and future trade
There are early signs of cross-border openings in the north. Azerbaijani activists recently crossed at a point in the Tavush region.
Richard Giragosian, founding director of the Regional Studies Center in Yerevan, sees potential for road access to open. Farhad Mammadov, director at Baku’s Center for Studies of the South Caucasus, says delimitation and demarcation must come first.
Both capitals are preparing export lists. Yerevan is finalizing industrial and agricultural items intended for Azerbaijani markets.
Gas options and longer-term plans
Experts discuss Armenian imports of Azerbaijani gas and transit of Turkmen gas via Azerbaijan. These ideas depend on supply, transit deals, and regional agreements.
Giragosian argues Russia lost leverage as the Karabakh conflict ended. He cautions that Moscow may try to regain influence after a cease-fire in Ukraine.
Filmogaz.com will continue to monitor how trade links shape normalization and regional influence.
