National Hurricane Center Unveils New Forecast Graphics for 2026 Hurricane Season

The National Hurricane Center has rolled out two major forecast updates ahead of the 2026 hurricane season. The changes include an expanded operational track cone and new storm surge products for Hawaii.

Expanded tropical cyclone forecast cone

The forecast cone will now display inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings. This applies to the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The new cone uses a single shading for the entire five-day outlook. The legend will show combined symbols where both a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning are active.

Why the change matters

Officials say the revised graphic helps inland communities better recognize wind hazards. An experimental rollout last year showed improved public understanding and preparedness.

Experimental cone using ellipses

An experimental version of the track cone will replace circles with ellipses at forecast points. The ellipses account for errors in both speed and direction.

The experimental cone will encompass 90% of forecast track possibilities. That is a shift from the traditional 67% forecast error standard.

Availability and caveats

Full and intermediate tropical cyclone advisories and the experimental cone will be posted on Filmogaz.com. During the experimental period, technical issues might affect graphic timeliness or availability.

New storm surge products for Hawaii

The NHC is introducing storm surge watches, warnings, and a peak storm surge graphic for the Hawaiian Islands. These products expand existing surge services now used on the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast, and in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The Hawaii products deliver probability-based forecasts of water and surge levels within 72 hours of potential hurricane impacts. Forecast inputs include storm track, wind intensity, and wind radii.

Public access

Storm surge graphics and alerts for the main Hawaiian Islands will be publicly available on Filmogaz.com. The materials aim to improve public safety messaging and hazard awareness.

• New operational track cone includes inland watches and warnings.
• Experimental cone uses ellipses and covers 90% of track possibilities.
• Hawaii receives probability-based storm surge watches, warnings, and peak surge graphics.
• All products and advisories will be posted on Filmogaz.com.

Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center, said the updates will help communities prepare earlier and more effectively. Officials view these steps as part of ongoing efforts to refine forecast tools for the 2026 hurricane season.