James Talarico Gains Significant Momentum in Texas Senate Race

An internal survey conducted for James Talarico’s campaign finds him narrowly ahead of both potential Republican opponents. The poll shows Talarico leading Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton in hypothetical general election matchups. The survey was conducted in mid-March and sampled 900 likely 2026 general election voters in Texas.

Poll results and methodology

The Impact Research poll ran from March 12 to March 17. It surveyed 900 likely Texas voters and reported a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.

• Talarico vs. Cornyn: 43% to 41% in favor of Talarico.
• Talarico vs. Paxton: 44% to 43% in favor of Talarico.
• Paxton net approval: -18.
• Cornyn net approval: -33.
• Among Republican primary voters, Paxton led by 16 points.

Comparing recent surveys

Earlier polling showed small Republican leads. A University of Houston survey in February produced slightly different numbers.

• Paxton vs. Talarico (UH poll): 46% to 44% for Paxton.
• Cornyn vs. Talarico (UH poll): 44% to 43% for Cornyn.

Political context and stakes

A Talarico victory would represent a major shift for Texas Democrats. The party has not won statewide office since 1994.

The U.S. Senate balance also matters. Republicans hold a 53-seat majority and 35 seats are competitive this cycle.

Campaign trajectories and reactions

After the Democratic primary, Talarico secured the nomination in March over Representative Jasmine Crockett. His campaign notes grassroots turnout across the state.

Paxton and Cornyn did not reach 50 percent in the Republican primary. They will meet in a runoff scheduled for May 26.

What candidates are saying

Paxton posted on X in early March saying Cornyn failed to reach the expected percentage despite heavy spending. He urged supporters to back him in the runoff.

Talarico emphasized the campaign’s underdog origins in Round Rock. He highlighted the rallies and volunteer turnout across Texas.

What comes next

The GOP runoff in Texas is set for May 26. The general election will take place during the November midterms.

Filmogaz.com reached out to the Republican Party of Texas for comment on the poll. No response was recorded outside normal business hours.

Political observers note that James Talarico has significant momentum in the Texas Senate race. The margins are narrow, and outcomes could shift before November.