Pogacar Declares Milan-San Remo the Toughest Race: Here’s Why
Tadej Pogacar has chased Milan-San Remo without success across five editions. His placings show near-misses and narrow gaps to the winners.
| Year | Result | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 (Aug 8) | 12th | Finished 2 seconds behind winner Wout van Aert. |
| 2022 | 5th | 2 seconds behind Matej Mohoric, who opened a gap on the descent. |
| 2023 | 4th | 15 seconds back from Mathieu van der Poel. |
| 2024 | 3rd | Beaten in the sprint by Jasper Philipsen and Michael Matthews. |
| 2025 | 3rd | Sprinted behind Van der Poel and Filippo Ganna. |
Why Milan-San Remo resists Pogacar
Pogacar has stamped the race with aggressive moves. Yet he still lacks a victory in this Monument.
He has set a record on the Cipressa. The climb of 5.6 km was covered in 8 minutes 57 seconds. That equals an average near 37.1 km/h, quicker than Marco Pantani’s 1999 time.
Course shape and physics
The route offers long, shallow climbs and high speeds. Those features favor powerful riders and time trial specialists.
Pogacar is explosive. But the Poggio is short and very fast. That reduces the pure-climber advantage.
Insights from Maurizio Mazzoleni
Maurizio Mazzoleni, sport manager at Xds Astana, explained the race dynamics. He previously worked with Vincenzo Nibali.
Mazzoleni highlighted two factors. One is the placement of the Cipressa as the first real climb. The other is its limited length and modest gradients.
The Cipressa explained
The peloton reaches the Cipressa after roughly 270 km. There is little accumulated muscular fatigue from prior climbs.
That limits Pogacar’s ability to exploit climbing superiority. If a steeper or longer ascent preceded the Cipressa, outcomes would differ.
Power numbers and speed
Power data frames much of the explanation. Mazzoleni cited average targets and peak outputs.
- Cipressa average power: about 6 watts per kilogram for the lead group.
- Poggio peak power: can exceed 7.5 watts per kilogram during decisive moves.
- Typical Cipressa speed: 36–37 km/h, rising above 40 km/h in attacks.
- Poggio average: roughly 39 km/h, with attacks topping 50 km/h.
- Short spikes: attacks can produce 800–900 watts for seconds.
To illustrate, an 80 kg rider must average near 480–490 watts to produce 6 watts/kg. Drafting changes these numbers significantly.
Drafting and its effect
On the Poggio, high speed makes the slipstream crucial. Riding in a wheel can save about 10–15% of required power.
That energy saving can equal around 50 watts on a 500-watt effort. Such savings let follow riders stay with attackers.
What would change the balance
Mazzoleni argues two course changes would help Pogacar. A longer Cipressa or an extra climb before it would favor him.
Longer or steeper gradients would reduce the value of raw power and drafting. They would reward repeated climbing performances.
Records and rival performances
Van der Poel set a blistering Poggio time in 2023. He covered it in 5 minutes 38 seconds.
That pace averaged above 39 km/h. It shows how the Poggio can be ridden more like a high-speed time trial.
Pogacar has taken Monument wins elsewhere. He needs Milan-San Remo and Paris-Roubaix to complete the five-race set. Only three riders have won all five Monuments, according to the historical list cited.
Filmogaz.com interviewed Mazzoleni to unpack these technical details. The explanation clarifies why Pogacar finds Milan-San Remo the toughest race to crack.
