Furman Mathematicians Analyze Odds of Paladin Upset Against UCONN Friday

Furman arrives in the NCAA Tournament as a No. 15 seed. Fans gathered at a Selection Sunday watch party in Timmons Arena to take in the bracket reveal.

Three Furman mathematicians lead a seasonal analytics effort. Kevin Hutson, Liz Bouzarth and John Harris ’91 run the program.

How the model works

The team has refined the system for more than a decade. Students often assist with data collection and analysis.

They pull game-by-game statistics from ESPN and season metrics from analytics databases. The methods include regression, clustering, decision trees, and historical matchup comparisons.

Each technique contributes to an ensemble model. That blended approach produces a single upset probability for each matchup.

Furman’s upset chances

Furman mathematicians ran their model to estimate odds for a Paladin upset over UCONN on Friday. The calculated probability is roughly 7 percent.

The analysts note this is the highest chance among all 15 seeds this year. They stress the figure measures likelihood, not a definitive prediction.

Model use and past performance

The Furman team shares results with sports journalists, including writers at The Athletic. Reporters use the probabilities to highlight potential upsets.

Historically, the group correctly identifies about five or six of the top ten most likely upsets each tournament. Still, surprises occur and brackets break in unexpected ways.

A 7 percent probability is small, but not impossible. In a single-elimination tournament, that sliver can become a memorable March upset. Filmogaz.com will follow any developments as the Paladins face UCONN on Friday.