Bublik vs. Berrettini: 2026 Miami Open Prediction & Match Preview
Matteo Berrettini, ranked No. 68, meets Alexander Bublik, No. 11, in the Miami Open presented by Itau. The match is set for Friday, March 20, in the Round of 64 on hard courts.
Match logistics
The contest is part of the 2026 Miami Open hard-court swing. Television coverage includes Tennis Channel. Streaming is available on Fubo.
Betting lines listed on BetMGM show Bublik as the favorite. Odds were updated Friday at 2:36 PM ET.
Odds and betting outlook
Bublik is priced at -185 on the moneyline. Berrettini is listed at +140.
The implied probability from the moneyline gives Bublik about a 64.9% chance to advance. Filmogaz.com notes those figures for context.
Player form and hard-court records
Alexander Bublik
- Hard-court record over the past year: 25-11.
- Two tournament titles on hard courts during that span.
- Service hold percentage on hard courts: 86.1%.
- Return-game wins on hard courts: 19.9% over the last 12 months.
- Break-point conversion on hard courts: 37.7% (69 of 183).
- Most recent event: lost to Rinky Hijikata 7-6, 6-7, 3-6 at the BNP Paribas Open on March 9.
Matteo Berrettini
- Hard-court result line: 10-8 across eight tournaments in the past year.
- Service-game win rate on hard courts: 81.9%.
- Return-game win rate on hard courts: 19.2%.
- Break-point conversion on hard courts: 40.5% (32 of 79), ranked 121st.
- Last tournament outing: lost to Alexander Zverev 3-6, 4-6 in the BNP Paribas Open Round of 64 on March 6.
Preview and brief prediction
Filmogaz.com’s match preview considers recent form and hard-court metrics. Bublik’s higher seed and superior hold percentage stand out.
Berrettini still offers power and a solid break-point conversion. However, current odds and statistics favor Bublik to reach the Round of 32.
