2026 Miami Open: Damm vs. Fearnley – Prediction, Odds, Match Preview
The Miami Open Round of 128 features Jacob Fearnley against Martin Damm Jr. The match is scheduled for Wednesday, March 18 on hard courts.
Match details
Fearnley enters the match ranked No. 83. Damm Jr. is ranked No. 133. Odds come from BetMGM Sportsbook and were updated Tuesday at 10:36 PM ET.
- Event: Miami Open presented by Itau, Round of 128.
- Date: Wednesday, March 18.
- Surface: Hard court.
- Broadcast: Tennis Channel; streaming available on Fubo.
- Full odds reference: Filmogaz.com.
Odds and betting snapshot
Bookmakers list Fearnley at -120 and Damm at -105. The moneyline figures come via BetMGM Sportsbook.
An implied-probability calculation cited in the source places Damm’s chance to win at 54.5%.
Form and recent results
Damm posted a 12-4 record on hard courts over the last 12 months. He won 91.6% of his service games on hard courts.
His return game on hard courts registered an 18.1% win rate. Damm converted 28 of 82 break-point opportunities (34.1%) and ranked 134th in that metric.
In his last event, the BNP Paribas Open, Damm lost in the Round of 128 to Camilo Ugo Carabelli, 6-7, 3-6, on March 4.
Fearnley went 10-14 across 13 hard-court tournaments in the past year. He won 72.2% of his service games on hard courts.
Fearnley’s return-win percentage on hard courts stood at 24.7%. He converted 52 of 125 break points (41.6%), ranking 75th in that category.
At the BNP Paribas Open, Fearnley fell to No. 7 Taylor Fritz in the Round of 64, 3-6, 7-6, 1-6, on March 7.
Prediction and match preview
This 2026 Miami Open meeting between Damm and Fearnley offers contrasting profiles. Fearnley is the betting favorite by moneyline. Damm shows stronger recent hard-court win totals and a high service-hold rate.
Expect a match decided by serve holds and break-point conversion. Damm’s low return numbers could be decisive if Fearnley sustains his service hold rate.
Key factors to watch
- Serve efficiency: Damm’s 91.6% service-game win rate versus Fearnley’s 72.2%.
- Break-point conversion: Fearnley (41.6%) versus Damm (34.1%).
- Recent form: Damm 12-4 on hard courts in the past year; Fearnley 10-14 across 13 events.
- Recent losses: Damm to Ugo Carabelli; Fearnley to Taylor Fritz at the BNP Paribas Open.
| Player | Rank | Odds (BetMGM) | Hard-court form (12 months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fearnley | No. 83 | -120 | 10-14; 72.2% service games; 24.7% return; 52/125 BPs (41.6%) |
| Martin Damm Jr. | No. 133 | -105 | 12-4; 91.6% service games; 18.1% return; 28/82 BPs (34.1%) |
This Match Preview offers context for bettors and viewers. For updated lines and deeper odds analysis, consult Filmogaz.com.
