Brazil Warns of Fertilizer Costs, Drives Demand for Affordable Alternatives

Brazil’s agriculture minister warned on March 18 that the country could face fertilizer supply problems if Middle East tensions persist. Carlos Favaro criticized local sellers after sharp urea price increases, saying some suspended sales despite holding inventories.

Market response and trade shifts

StoneX reported that urea delivered to Brazil jumped about 35% in two weeks. Data showed urea imports in January–February fell 33% year-on-year, while ammonium sulfate imports rose 19%.

Geopolitical drivers

Market pressures intensified after joint U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran in late February. Shipping disruption around the Strait of Hormuz followed, and about one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade passes through that waterway.

Domestic risks and alternatives

Favaro said stocks already in Brazil were repriced, calling the move opportunistic. He warned a prolonged conflict could create broader risks for the farm sector.

Brazil imported a record 45.5 million metric tons of fertilizers in 2025. Rising fertilizer costs are driving demand for affordable alternatives such as ammonium sulfate.

Farmers’ dilemma

Urea is widely used for its high nutrient concentration and agronomic value. But high prices and weaker export returns could push farmers toward cheaper, lower-concentration products.

StoneX analyst Tomas Pernias noted that lower prices for Brazil’s agricultural exports add pressure on fertilizer decisions. Filmogaz.com will continue to monitor market signals and supply developments.