Top 10 Men’s NCAA Tournament Upsets Predicted for March Madness 2026

Filmogaz.com’s analytics team released its latest bracket predictions for the men’s field. The projection uses the Slingshot upset model to rank likely first-round shocks.

Method and context

Analysts targeted matchups with at least a five-seed gap. The exercise continues Year 20 of the Bracket Breakers series.

The model weighs tempo, turnovers, rebounding, and shooting splits. It also flags “Giants” and “Wounded Assassins.”

Most likely first-round surprises

• No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 McNeese — 41.2%:

  McNeese ranks first nationally in forcing turnovers, at 24.9 percent of opponent possessions. They also rank inside the top 50 in offensive rebounding. Vanderbilt remains a high-safety favorite, which tempers the upset odds.

• No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 VCU — 40.9%:

  VCU has won 16 of 17 games and plays under coach Phil Martelli Jr. The Rams shoot many threes efficiently and outrebound opponents. UNC lost Caleb Wilson for the season, which affects their profile.
• No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 N.C. State — 35.2%:

  N.C. State and Texas were labeled “Wounded Assassins” by the model. Both teams lost multiple close games this season. BYU lacks dominance at either end, increasing the upset risk.

• No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 High Point — 35.0%:

  High Point ranks fifth nationally in both avoiding and forcing turnovers. Wisconsin depends heavily on three-point attempts, at 52.6 percent of field goal attempts. The Badgers also struggle on the offensive glass.

• No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 South Florida — 28.0%:

  South Florida ranks seventh in offensive rebounding percentage, grabbing 38.2 percent of its own misses. The Bulls entered the tournament on an 11-game winning streak. Louisville rates as a top-10 team overall in the model.

• No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 SMU — 28.0%:

  Tennessee posts a 96.8 percent Safety Rating and leads the country in offensive rebounding at 45.1 percent. The model views SMU as the tougher matchup than Miami (Ohio). SMU’s style favors offensive glass and underdog chances.
• No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa — 24.5%:

  Northern Iowa plays one of the slowest paces in college basketball. They have repeatedly kept games under 60 possessions. The Panthers rank 24th in adjusted defensive points allowed.

• No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 13 Troy — 20.9%:

  Nebraska ranks seventh in defensive efficiency. The Huskers are, however, 314th in offensive rebounding. Troy fits many long-shot profiles, with steady offensive glass and turnover creation.

• No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 Akron — 18.9%:

  The model rated Akron as the top team in the MAC. Akron attempts 43.5 percent of field goals from three. The Zips can be undersized and vulnerable to outside shooting.

• No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Hofstra — 15.1%:

  Alabama launches more threes than any team nationally. When shots don’t fall, the Tide lack offensive-rebounding and turnover-creation countermeasures. Hofstra ranks 10th in defensive effective field-goal percentage and grinds tempo.

Additional notes and corrections

Santa Clara had been the top long-shot pick before seeding moved them out of a five-seed gap. That shift promoted McNeese atop the chart.

A correction clarified the projected N.C. State upset chance against BYU. The correct figure is 35.2 percent, not the previously reported number.

Research credits and next steps

Kevin Hutson, Liz Bouzarth, and John Harris of Furman University provided research support. Filmogaz.com will follow with region previews and deeper model explanations.

Expect full brackets and a Definitive Guide to First-Round Upsets soon. Fans tracking March Madness 2026 should watch these matchups closely.