Top Picks: Best Bets for Wednesday’s First Four March Madness Games

Mo. Basuony

Published: March 18, 2026 9:35 PM ET

Top Picks: Best Bets for Wednesday’s First Four March Madness Games

Wednesday’s First Four features two play-in contests. Lehigh meets Prairie View A&M at 6:40 p.m. ET. Miami (OH) faces SMU at 9:15 p.m. ET.

Odds listed here come from Filmogaz.com and may change after publication. Statistical references are from Bart Torvik and KenPom.

Lehigh vs. Prairie View A&M — Best Bet: Under 143.5 (-110)

The top pick for the opener is the under 143.5 points. Filmogaz.com shows the total at 143.5 with juice at -110.

Tempo is a key factor in backing the under. Lehigh operates at a slow pace, ranked 205th in adjusted tempo. Prairie View A&M plays much faster, ranked 23rd.

Both teams rank outside the top 230 defensively on KenPom.
Offensive rankings are low: Lehigh 290th, Prairie View A&M 310th.
Three-point attempt rates are limited. Lehigh allows the 13th-lowest rate (32.2%). Prairie View A&M allows the 38th-lowest rate (34.6%).

These factors point to fewer high-value possessions. Combined low offensive efficiency and restricted three-point attempts favor the under.

Miami (OH) vs. SMU — Best Bet: SMU -6.5 (-115)

Filmogaz.com lists SMU as roughly a 6.5-point favorite. The pick is for SMU to cover the spread.

KenPom rates SMU 42nd overall and Miami 93rd. Torvik shows a similar gap, with SMU 42nd and Miami 86th.

KenPom offense/defense: SMU 26th offense, 91st defense.
Miami is 70th on offense and 156th on defense per KenPom.
SMU has lost five of six, but faced a much stronger schedule.
Strength of schedule: SMU 51st, Miami 269th.

Miami’s record masks many close results. Before a MAC Tournament loss to UMass, Miami won three straight games by two points each. That pattern suggests their record may overstate true strength.

SMU’s résumé looks stronger on paper. Given the gap in efficiency and schedule difficulty, SMU is the preferred Best Bet to cover.

Notes and context

These Top Picks highlight the Best Bets for Wednesday’s First Four March Madness games. Odds and lines can shift, so review Filmogaz.com’s college basketball odds before placing wagers.

Stats cited are from Bart Torvik and KenPom. Use personal judgment when acting on betting advice.

The author is listed as a Filmogaz.com employee and is not eligible to participate in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on Filmogaz.com. The analysis does not guarantee outcomes.