El Nino Forecast Projects Big 2026 Event and Returning La Nina in 2027
Confirmed: Climate Impact Company projects El Nino development in Q2/2026 with a potentially strong event in Q3/2026 and a return to La Niña in 2027. Tension: that El Nino forecast collides with World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts that favor ENSO-neutral conditions through spring and diagnostics that still reflect La Niña-like signals. This article examines the documented gap and what evidence could resolve it.
Climate Impact Company El Nino Forecast: analogs, upper ocean heat, and 2027 La Nina
Confirmed: The Climate Impact Company constructed an El Nino Forecast using upper ocean heat anomalies east of the Dateline, Nino34 SSTA, and the southern oscillation index. The firm projects El Nino development during Q2/2026 and a potentially strong El Nino evolving in Q3/2026, followed by dissipation early the next year and a returning La Niña mid-to-late 2027 lasting into early 2028.
Documented: That forecast rests on an immense February subsurface warming in the eastern equatorial East Pacific and on analog years: only two analogs from the past 30 years—2022-23 and 1996-97—match the 12-month regression. In those analogs, moderate to strong El Nino emerged and then gave way to a vigorous La Niña beginning Q2/2027.
World Meteorological Organization: La Niña Fades to Neutral March-May 2026
Confirmed: WMO guidance states the recent weak La Niña is expected to fade into ENSO-neutral conditions for March-May 2026. WMO Global Producing Centres forecasts place a 60% chance of neutral conditions in March-May 2026, rising to 70% during April-June 2026.
Documented: WMO guidance shows neutral probability at 60% for May-July 2026 while the chance of El Niño increases steadily to around 40% in that May-July period. WMO framing therefore tilts toward neutral in spring with a gradually increasing El Niño probability later in the year.
Nino34 SSTA, southern oscillation index diagnostics, and the ENSO predictability barrier
Confirmed: Current diagnostics in the Climate Impact Company material show the daily conventional Nino34 SSTA is exactly normal, warming by 0. 4C during the past month. The daily southern oscillation index stands at +2. 5, which the report states vigorously endorses a lingering La Niña climate. The Climate Impact Company also flags that we are within the core of the springtime ENSO predictability barrier and recommends caution on ENSO-related planning until mid-to-late Q2/2026.
Documented pattern: Taken together, the records show a clear divergence: strong subsurface warming and analogs point toward substantial El Nino risk in 2026, while surface indices, a positive southern oscillation index, and WMO seasonal probabilities emphasize neutral conditions or lingering La Niña influence through spring. What remains unclear is which set of signals will dominate once the predictability barrier eases in mid-to-late Q2/2026.
Open question and resolving evidence: The context does not confirm the timing or intensity of an El Nino beyond the constructed analogs and WMO probability windows. If Nino34 SSTA and the documented upper ocean heat anomalies persist and produce sustained surface warming by mid-to-late Q2/2026, it would establish El Nino development as projected in the Climate Impact Company El Nino Forecast. Conversely, if the southern oscillation index remains positive and Nino34 SSTA does not sustain warming through that mid-to-late Q2/2026 window, the WMO-neutral outcome or lingering La Niña influence would be reinforced.
