Oscar Predictions: Navigating an Unpredictable Awards Season

Riley Calderon

Published: March 12, 2026 3:13 PM ET

As the 98th Academy Awards approach, several key categories remain highly competitive. The ceremony, set for March 15, promises to deliver unexpected results. This year’s awards season has seen fierce competition, leading to an unpredictable showdown among frontrunners in major categories.

Oscar Predictions: Navigating an Unpredictable Awards Season

Best Picture

This category is dominated by two blockbuster films: One Battle After Another and Sinners. Despite both having passionate supporters, One Battle has the historical edge. It has won critical acclaim and major precursor awards, including the Producers Guild Award, the Directors Guild Award, and the BAFTA.

Certainly, One Battle After Another has a substantial awards résumé. No film with a similar track record has lost the Best Picture Oscar before. Sinners achieved a surprise victory in the Best Ensemble category at the SAG Awards. This upset has injected uncertainty into the Best Picture race.

Best Director

Predictably, Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another is favored to win. However, Ryan Coogler from Sinners could pull an upset. The current trend suggests that Best Picture and Best Director often coincide, making Anderson a formidable candidate.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, nominated for Hamnet, appears to have a clear advantage in this category. Despite minor controversies surrounding her recent remarks about cats, her win seems almost assured. Meanwhile, Rose Byrne, nominated for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, remains a dark horse in this category.

Best Actor

Michael B. Jordan, for Sinners, is currently favored to win.
Wagner Moura, for The Secret Agent, could offer an upset.
Leonardo DiCaprio, for One Battle After Another, also remains in contention.

The Best Actor race has seen surprising shifts recently. Chalamet was once considered a top contender but has seen his momentum falter.

Best Supporting Actress

This category remains competitive. Amy Madigan, for Weapons, holds a slight edge after wins at the CCA and the Actor Awards. Wunmi Mosaku, for Sinners, and Teyana Taylor, for One Battle After Another, are also in the running.

Best Supporting Actor

Sean Penn is projected to win for One Battle After Another, having recently secured both the BAFTA and the Actor Award. However, Stellan Skarsgard from Sentimental Value could surprise given his legendary status and lack of an Oscar.

Best Screenplay

Sinners (Original)
One Battle After Another (Adapted)

Both films are likely to win in their respective screenplay categories. Their dominance makes it unlikely that any other nominees could disrupt their victories.

Best International Feature

The competition is close between The Secret Agent from Brazil and Sentimental Value from Norway. The latter has the edge with recent accolades, but Brazil’s recent success in this category keeps The Secret Agent in contention.

Conclusion

The 98th Academy Awards promises to be an unpredictable affair, with numerous categories hanging in the balance. As predictions solidify, anticipation builds for the winners on March 15. Filmogaz.com will continue to provide updates and insights leading up to the event.