Collin Morikawa climbs into THE PLAYERS top tier, pointing to a tighter favorites race
collin morikawa arrives at THE PLAYERS Championship positioned near the very top of the pre-tournament market, with odds of +1800 that place him third behind Scottie Scheffler (+450) and Rory McIlroy (+1600). That combination of pricing, recent form notes, and his opening-round pairing at TPC Sawgrass signals a week where the established top two still lead the board, but the next tier is close enough to matter.
THE PLAYERS Championship odds set Collin Morikawa just behind Scheffler and McIlroy
The current state of the board is clear: Scheffler enters as the betting favorite at +450, with McIlroy next at +1600, and Collin Morikawa next at +1800. The same list that places Morikawa third also shows a tightly packed group behind the top three, including Ludvig Aberg (+2200) and Si Woo Kim (+2200), followed by Russell Henley (+2800) and Tommy Fleetwood (+2800), with Xander Schauffele (+3000) also among the shorter prices.
That spread creates two visible lanes of expectation. The first is the dominance implied by Scheffler’s favorite status, reinforced by the note that the World No. 1 has “dominated the odds board for the last two-plus years. ” The second is the compressed group behind him, where the gap between McIlroy (+1600) and Collin Morikawa (+1800) is narrow enough to signal that a strong week could reorder the chasing pack quickly.
TPC Sawgrass pairings spotlight Morikawa, Aberg, and Si Woo Kim early
THE PLAYERS begins Thursday at TPC Sawgrass, and the opening two rounds will put several of the highest-profile names in defined groups. Scheffler is set to play alongside Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Thomas in Rounds 1 and 2. McIlroy will play with Xander Schauffele and Hideki Matsuyama. Morikawa will play with Ludvig Aberg and Si Woo Kim.
Those groupings matter because they place contenders with comparable market expectations together, especially in Morikawa’s case. Aberg and Si Woo Kim sit at +2200, directly adjacent to Morikawa’s +1800 position. For the early portion of the week, that puts a spotlight on a cluster that the odds already treat as closely matched, even if the board still separates Morikawa as the best-priced among them.
The event’s prize structure adds intensity to that separation at the top. THE PLAYERS offers a $25 million purse, with $4. 5 million to the winner. In a week where the market draws a bright line between +450 and the rest, those stakes amplify the incentive for anyone in the Morikawa tier to convert strong form into a win, rather than another high finish.
Morikawa’s recent results and TPC Sawgrass finish point toward sustained contention
Among staff picks, one selection highlights why Morikawa’s +1800 price has credibility behind it: a win at Pebble described as “huge, ” followed by two top-10 finishes since. The same assessment notes that he “hasn’t shot worse than 70 in his last three tournaments, ” and that he tied for 10th at TPC Sawgrass last year, described as his best finish at the venue. The direction implied by those specifics is not a sudden spike, but continued steadiness, with recent scoring consistency and a prior top-10 on the course.
Still, the broader competitive landscape points to how hard it is to separate the top names. The context notes that Scheffler and McIlroy have won the last three editions of THE PLAYERS, with Scheffler winning in 2023 and 2024, and McIlroy winning last year in a playoff over J. J. Spaun. That recent history helps explain why the top of the board remains anchored by those two, even as Morikawa rounds out the top three.
If the current trajectory continues for Collin Morikawa—meaning the form line of a win at Pebble, two additional top-10s, and no rounds worse than 70 across his last three tournaments—then his third-place odds position could translate into a week where he stays attached to the Scheffler-McIlroy lead group deep into the event. Should a specific context factor shift, and the recent pattern of Scheffler and McIlroy winning THE PLAYERS breaks, the odds-board compression behind them makes Morikawa’s +1800 tier one of the clearest next places for a winner to emerge. The next confirmed milestone is the Thursday start at TPC Sawgrass, and what the context does not resolve is how those opening-round groupings will translate into actual scoring separation once competitive rounds begin.
