Stock Market Today, March 10: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Reverse Early Losses as Crude Oil Collapses 11% on Iran War De-escalation Signals and G7 Strategic Reserve Decision
Wall Street whipsawed again Tuesday before finding its footing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all clawed back early losses as crude oil cratered and investors weighed conflicting signals on how close the Iran war actually is to ending.
Indexes Find Footing After Volatile Open
The Dow advanced 248 points, or 0.5%, while the S&P 500 climbed 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6% — this after the Dow had dropped as many as 297 points at its session low.
The reversal was fast and unmistakable. Stocks turned green after G7 president France confirmed the bloc had asked the International Energy Agency to study how much oil volume could be released from each country's strategic petroleum reserve and to be prepared for a decision.
The VIX — Wall Street's fear gauge — was trading near 23.34, down sharply, a meaningful pullback after days of elevated anxiety.
Oil Does the Heavy Lifting
The headline number Tuesday wasn't any equity index. It was crude. West Texas Intermediate futures fell roughly 11% to trade around $84 a barrel. Brent crude shed 10.4% to $88.79.
That's a collapse from the stratosphere. WTI had surged above $101 per barrel on Sunday after major Middle East producers cut output, and U.S. crude posted its biggest weekly gain in futures trading history last week — roughly 35%.
The selloff in oil traces directly to President Trump. He told a CBS News reporter that "the war is very complete, pretty much," adding that Iran "has no navy, no communications, they've got no Air Force," and said the U.S. is "very far" ahead of its initial four-to-five week estimated timeline.
The Complication: Tehran Isn't Done
Markets are running on Trump's words — but the facts on the ground are messier. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his offensive is "not done yet" and launched a new wave of strikes on Tehran on Tuesday.
Then came the shock that briefly erased the morning's gains. An oil tanker exploded near Abu Dhabi, with Iran's state media reporting the incident — casting doubt on Trump's confidence that the conflict could end very soon. Stocks dipped, steadied, then recovered again as the SPR announcement overtook the headline.
Dow's Biggest Drags
Not every corner of the market is participating in Tuesday's recovery. Salesforce fell 3.61% and UnitedHealth Group dropped 1.68%, making them the biggest weights on the 30-stock Dow. IBM shed 2.24%, adding to the pressure on the blue-chip index.
Cisco Systems gained 2.81% and Caterpillar rose 1.56%, but those gains weren't enough to offset the damage from the laggards.
What's on Deck
The calendar matters this week. Investors will get the February Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, followed by January's Personal Consumption Expenditures index on Friday. Both prints land against a backdrop of oil-driven inflation anxiety — and a Federal Reserve that, Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave warned in a note Tuesday morning, investors are misreading when it comes to how it will respond to elevated energy prices.
Oracle is scheduled to report earnings after the close Tuesday, with Adobe on Thursday's docket.
The IEA called an emergency meeting of its 30-plus member countries Tuesday to assess supply conditions and determine whether to make emergency stockpiles available to global markets — IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol confirmed the session. That decision, whenever it comes, is the next catalyst traders are watching.
