Irish Racing at Naas: Tony Keenan lines up key plays and pitfalls for Sunday
In a fresh card of National Hunt action, irish racing turns to Naas today as analyst Tony Keenan highlights one standout bet and flags several hazards across the feature races. With recent staying handicaps producing shock outcomes, the read on this card matters for punters looking to navigate competitive fields.
Irish Racing spotlight: Kingsfurze and the opening maiden
Early on the card, two non-handicaps frame the day’s first betting questions. In the opening maiden hurdle, Keenan views Doctor Elvis as priced shorter in his book than the wider market had suggested. The horse produced an excellent hurdles debut over two years ago, then returned from a layoff and stepped forward to finish a close fourth. He jumped well before being briefly outpaced at two miles, and the anticipated step up in trip should be a plus. He was not given a hard time late, a further positive for progress. While Colcannon may be the most naturally talented in the field, his hurdling has been patchy so far and he may be better suited to shorter.
The Kingsfurze Novice Hurdle demands caution with market leaders. Lazare de Star is at the head of the betting yet has looked less than willing on occasion, including losing a race he shaped to win at Punchestown. Blake raises similar questions on attitude. That leaves space for Davy Crockett to deliver on earlier promise, though he had a setback after Listowel and likely needed his most recent run; a potential concern is testing ground if it turns up that way.
Leinster National clues: Can the favourite stay straight?
Staying handicap chases have been tough reads in recent months—Favori De Champdou landed the Paddy Power at 66/1, Spanish Harlem emerged as the moral winner of the Thyestes at 28/1, and My Immortal sprang a surprise in the Punchestown Grand National Trial at 40/1—so confidence has been hard-won. The BAR 1 Betting Leinster National Handicap Chase, however, might be more tractable.
Goraibhmaithagat is a strong favourite after a novice handicap win over the same course last month, getting up on the line despite numerous mistakes. The new trip is less of a worry than the jumping itself, which could be tested against seasoned rivals. Among the JP McManus-owned runners, Buachaillbocht retains interest after shaping well when sixth in the Paddy Power. That effort came on ground quicker than ideal, from the unfavoured inner, and with interference three out. He disappointed at the DRF, but looked to have sweated up and tackled a trip that seemed on the sharp side, making that run easier to forgive. The Lovely Man also has claims, arriving in good winter form and arguably better than the bare result last time at Punchestown, where a steady pace and a key mistake blunted his chance.
Handicaps elsewhere on the card keep options open. In the BAR 1 Betting handicap hurdle, I’m Slippy could be on a fair mark and appears better suited to this trip than stablemate Better Times Ahead. Catch The Beat, Slurricane and Mojoe are also in the mix, underscoring the depth rather than a single standout angle.
Late card: the mares’ bumper call and where the value might live
The mares’ bumper closes the day’s talking points, with Poetise holding obvious claims. The absence of hurdles should help after two below-par jumping displays. Still, there are question marks: the opposition behind her most recently did not look strong, and the form of the Cheltenham bumper she won, as well as a Thurles race taken by Kiltybo, reads ordinary at this stage.
Against that backdrop, Keenan nominates Caoimhe as a win selection. She contested what he rates as probably the season’s strongest mares’ bumper at Navan in November, a race won by Old School Outlaw. That piece of form—combined with doubts around the strength of some rival lines—sets a clear case for siding with her here.
Context across the meeting sharpens the lens for bettors. The Kingsfurze might be primed for an alternative to the head of the market if temperament tells again; the Leinster National trial revolves around whether the favourite’s jumping holds under more intense pressure; the handicap hurdle presents a cluster of workable marks; and the mares’ bumper pits a solid profile in Poetise against the perceived classier line through Caoimhe.
For irish racing followers weighing up the day, this is less about loading up on short prices and more about isolating shape and set-up: proven course form with improved jumping for Goraibhmaithagat, a forgiving stance on Buachaillbocht’s DRF run, and an each-way mindset in thicker handicaps. The most actionable angle remains the endorsement of Caoimhe in the mares’ bumper, with the Navan formline doing the heavy lifting on quality.
