Crude Oil Prices Tumble From Historic Highs as Trump Signals Hormuz Move
Crude oil prices whipsawed violently on Tuesday, March 10, pulling back sharply after President Donald Trump sent mixed signals on the Iran war and the fate of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are attempting to stabilize after one of the most chaotic stretches in the history of global oil trading.
Oil Prices Today: WTI and Brent Fall Back Below $100
U.S. crude oil hovered around $90 per barrel on Tuesday, while Brent crude was trading around $93.30 per barrel as of 8:13 a.m. ET, down sharply from Monday's extreme highs.
Brent crude oil is currently trading at $94.59 per barrel, up 1.86% from the previous session but still well below Monday's intraday peaks. WTI crude oil sits at $90.30 per barrel, down 1.04% from its prior close.
Today's trading range for WTI crude oil futures spans between $84.45 and $91.44, with a 52-week price range extending from $54.98 all the way to $119.43 per barrel.
What Drove the Oil Price Surge to Near $120
A historic disruption to the world's oil supply sent crude prices smashing through the $100 barrier on Monday for the first time in nearly four years, before prices settled just below that level. U.S. crude settled at $94.77 a barrel, up 4.3%, while Brent rose 6.8% to $98.96 a barrel.
The Iran war has disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supply for ten consecutive days — more than double the previous record set during the Suez Crisis of 1956 to 1957, which disrupted just under 10% of global supply.
The war with Iran has elevated crude oil prices for two primary reasons: a near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and a slowdown in oil production across the Middle East. Gulf Arab states have been cutting production because they are running out of storage space, with crude piling up and nowhere to flow.
Trump's Comments and G7 Emergency Response
Trump told CBS News that ships are moving through the Strait and that he is "thinking about taking it over." He also indicated he believed the war would be over soon and is considering reducing oil sanctions on Russia to help ease crude prices.
G7 energy ministers are set to hold a virtual meeting to discuss a potential release of emergency oil reserves aimed at easing supply disruptions. The U.S. believes a joint release of between 300 million and 400 million barrels — roughly 25% to 30% of the group's combined 1.2 billion-barrel reserves — would be appropriate.
Crude Oil Market Outlook and Price Forecasts
Brent oil prices could surge to $135 per barrel if current conditions persist for four months, according to Rystad Energy. Brent would climb above $110 if the disruption lasts two months.
The CEO of Saudi Aramco warned Tuesday that the war threatens "catastrophic consequences" for the global oil market, calling it "by far the biggest crisis" his company has ever faced, with a "severe chain reaction" rippling into aviation, agriculture, and automotive industries.
Despite the near-term shock, long-dated oil futures for 2027 and 2028 delivery are still trading in the high $60s, suggesting that traders still expect some form of resolution and are not yet pricing in a permanent disruption to global crude supply.
What the Oil Price Shock Means for Consumers
U.S. gasoline prices have risen about 50 cents in a week to $3.48 a gallon, higher than at any point in either of President Trump's terms. The world had been sitting on a supply glut before the conflict began, which is why oil had been trading near $60 a barrel before the United States and Israel attacked Iran.
WTI crude has now risen by 38.05% over the past month, while Brent crude has climbed 34.93% — the largest monthly increase for either benchmark since 2022.
The oil market remains in a state of extreme uncertainty. Every presidential statement and diplomatic development is moving crude oil prices by double digits within hours, leaving traders, refiners, and consumers braced for further volatility as the situation in the Middle East continues to evolve.
