Tesla Share Price Drops as March 9 NHTSA Deadline Raises Investor Pressure
Tesla shares fell 2. 17%, closing at $396. 73 on March 6, 2026, as investors braced for a March 9 ET NHTSA submission that could affect the company’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) and robotaxi rollout. The tesla share price volatility matters because the filing is part of an active federal investigation into FSD safety.
Tesla Share Price Falls After March 6 Close at $396. 73
Trading on March 6 ended with a close of $396. 73, down $8. 82 from the prior session, and after-hours trading dipped to about $394. 69. Volume on March 6 reached approximately 64 million shares, and the company’s market capitalization was roughly $1. 49 trillion, reflecting an 11. 78% year-to-date decline and a 52-week range between $214. 25 and $498. 83.
NHTSA Submission on March 9 Centers on FSD Video, Logs and Robotaxi Reports
Tesla is expected to submit comprehensive FSD data on or before March 9, including video footage, event data recorder logs and CAN bus files tied to potential traffic violations. The NHTSA opened an investigation that initially identified 58 incidents, and investigators flagged more than 8, 300 records still requiring review. Separately, Tesla has reported 14 incidents involving its Austin robotaxi service since the robotaxi launch in June 2025.
Valuation Models and Free Cash Flow Contrast With Market Pricing
One discounted cash flow (DCF) output in market analysis estimates an intrinsic value near $152. 12 per share versus the recent market price of $396. 73, implying the shares are 160. 8% above that model’s estimate. Tesla’s latest twelve-month free cash flow is reported at about $5. 3 billion, with projected free cash flow reaching $27. 1 billion in 2030 in that model. The company trades on a price-to-sales ratio of 15. 70x against an industry average of 0. 58x and a peer average of 1. 33x, while a proprietary Fair Ratio was noted at 3. 29x.
For investors, the combination of short-term regulatory risk tied to the March 9 submission and longer-term valuation signals creates a mixed picture: market pricing shows sensitivity to near-term operational headlines even as model-based metrics point to divergence between price and some intrinsic-value estimates.
Tesla must deliver the NHTSA FSD crash and event-data submission on or before March 9 ET; that deadline is the next confirmed event that could produce new disclosures and market reaction.
