Tesla Stock Slips as NHTSA Deadline Nears for FSD Data
Tesla stock slipped again, extending its losing streak as investors weighed a looming federal deadline tied to Tesla’s driver-assistance data and ongoing debate about the company’s valuation. As of Monday at 11: 22 a. m. ET, attention centered on the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s investigation covering an estimated 2, 882, 566 vehicles equipped with FSD (Supervised) or FSD (Beta).
The immediate focus is timing: Tesla has until March 9 to comply with the agency’s request, and the deadline is three days away based on the current framing of the investigation. The same backdrop has also sharpened scrutiny of Tesla’s recent rally and the risks embedded in the stock’s current pricing.
NHTSA investigation covers 2, 882, 566 vehicles using FSD (Supervised) or FSD (Beta)
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is seeking data tied to alleged traffic violations involving vehicles running red lights, making illegal turns, and driving the wrong way. The request is part of an investigation into an estimated 2, 882, 566 Tesla vehicles equipped with FSD (Supervised) or FSD (Beta).
In the same description of the probe, the driving system is characterized as “Level-2, ” meaning a person must be in the driver’s seat and paying attention at all times. Even so, the agency is examining whether the incidents occurred in a way that a driver could not reasonably react or intervene.
The investigation narrative also cites 58 incidents connected to the issue, including 23 injuries from 14 crashes. No fatalities are listed as being on record in connection with the issue.
March 9 deadline for Tesla data adds pressure as penalties are outlined
Tesla has until March 9 to comply with the data demand. The same account says the deadline has already been extended twice, and it describes the possibility that Tesla could continue to resist providing the information.
Federal penalties were also described in concrete terms: NHTSA can fine Tesla just short of $28, 000 per day, each day, up to a maximum of $139. 4 million. The description adds that there is uncertainty about the agency’s ability to effectively punish a company for non-compliance in this and similar situations, while also emphasizing that the agency “isn’t completely powerless. ”
Separately, the account references a prior legal matter in which Elon Musk’s main company was required to hand over $243 million in damages after failing to hand over evidence in a wrongful death lawsuit involving an Autopilot-driven vehicle in Miami. It also describes earlier friction involving cease-and-desist requests and advertising-related concerns, and it states Tesla previously failed to comply with a federal regulation requiring automakers to report crashes involving Level 2 self-driving systems within five days.
Tesla Stock valuation debate points to unit sales, cash flow margin, and P/E
A separate risk-focused view of Tesla’s recent market performance notes the shares have beaten the S& P 500 by 10. 8% over the past six months and that the stock trades at $406. 74, described as a 15. 9% gain. Against that run-up, the same assessment argues there are “better opportunities” than TSLA and highlights three areas it views as concerns.
First is volume. Tesla’s units sold were stated as 418, 227 in the latest quarter, with units sold declining by 4. 9% annually over the last two years. The same analysis frames that as underwhelming and suggests it could point to increasing competition or market saturation, and it notes the possibility that Tesla might have to lower prices or invest in product improvements, factors it says can weigh on near-term profitability.
Second is free cash flow. The same assessment says Tesla’s free cash flow margin dropped by 2. 8 percentage points over the last five years and places Tesla’s trailing 12-month free cash flow margin at 6. 6%. It also frames the longer-term margin trend as potentially signaling an investment cycle related to pursuing AI technologies such as a robotaxi or humanoid robot fleet.
Third is valuation. The assessment states Tesla trades at 197. 2× forward price-to-earnings, alongside the $406. 74 per-share level, and argues that at that valuation “a lot of good news” is already priced into the stock.
Tesla stock remains in focus as the March 9 deadline approaches and investors balance regulatory scrutiny tied to FSD (Supervised) or FSD (Beta) against the stock’s recent outperformance and the debate over fundamentals. The next confirmed milestone is the March 9 compliance deadline, which arrives at 11: 59 p. m. ET.
