Oil Futures Price Takes Back Seat as Morgan Stanley Boosts Nvidia Conviction
For stock investors weighing macro shocks against AI momentum, oil futures price risk is now being met by a fresh Wall Street signal that keeps capital pointed at Nvidia rather than energy hedges. Monday at 9: 30 a. m. ET, Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore reinstated Nvidia as the firm’s top semiconductor pick, a call that helped frame what investors may prioritize into the rest of 2026.
Nvidia shares, which closed at $177. 19 on Friday, rose about 3% on Monday to roughly $182. 94 as Moore’s note reached clients. The move landed while Nvidia is down about 3% so far in 2026, a disconnect Moore described as an opportunity because the company’s underlying business has continued to grow.
Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore shifts the 2026 playbook toward Nvidia
The most immediate change for investors is a clearer pecking order inside Morgan Stanley’s semiconductor coverage: Nvidia is back at the top, and Micron Technology is no longer in that slot. Moore’s decision followed what he characterized as an extreme run in memory stocks, with memory names delivering gains of 300% to 900% since Morgan Stanley made the Micron call months earlier—moves he flagged as raising sustainability questions for further upside.
Moore maintained Morgan Stanley’s Overweight rating on Nvidia and kept a $260 price target, which implies about 47% upside from Friday’s close. He also pointed to valuation, saying Nvidia trades at roughly 18 times projected 2027 earnings and calling the current level a “surprisingly good entry point. ”
Nvidia’s supply contracts and 2026 AI spend challenge oil-driven caution
Moore’s core argument is that Nvidia’s stock has been flat for two straight quarters while the business kept expanding. He attributed that gap to two investor worries: that Nvidia’s growth cycle could peak in 2026, and that custom chips built by hyperscalers and rivals could be eroding Nvidia’s dominance. His rebuttal: the evidence points the other way.
In Moore’s view, longer-duration demand signals—especially hyperscalers signing three-year supply contracts, in some cases with full upfront prepayments—undercut the idea that spending is about to slow. He described those prepayments as a durability signal that is difficult to reconcile with a near-term peak in demand.
Moore also laid out a scale argument around AI infrastructure. Hyperscalers are projected to spend over $660 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026, nearly double the $443 billion deployed in 2025. For investors juggling scenarios that include geopolitical disruptions that could push crude sharply higher, that spending trajectory is being treated as a competing anchor for capital allocation decisions.
In that framing, oil futures price becomes one of several risk inputs rather than the only directional guide. The thesis Moore is reinforcing is that the AI buildout is still broadening and that Nvidia’s revenue exposure remains supported by multi-year commitments rather than short-cycle purchasing.
Nvidia’s latest results and the March 16–19 GTC conference set the next catalyst
Moore’s confidence call leaned on recent company performance and updated expectations. Over the past six months, Nvidia’s earnings expectations for the current quarter were revised upward 38%, yet the stock “barely moved, ” in Moore’s characterization—one reason he sees the current setup as mispriced.
Just last week, Nvidia reported record quarterly revenue of $68. 1 billion, up 73% year over year and ahead of the $66. 2 billion Wall Street had expected. Data center revenue reached $62. 3 billion, up 75% from a year earlier and accounting for over 91% of total company sales. For fiscal 2026, Nvidia posted $215. 9 billion in revenue, up 65% from the prior year, with net income topping $120 billion and free cash flow of $97 billion.
Nvidia’s guidance for the current quarter was also highlighted: investors to expect roughly $78 billion in revenue, ahead of the $72. 6 billion analysts had penciled in. Nvidia added that it is not assuming any data center revenue from China in that outlook, which would make any China sales potential upside.
Moore’s market share breakdown further supported the durability case: he estimated Nvidia holds roughly 85% of AI processor revenue, with AMD below 5% and custom ASICs just above 10%. He added that even the largest ASIC and AMD users are each expected to grow their Nvidia-based business by more than 80% in 2026—an assertion meant to show that alternative silicon is not necessarily synonymous with Nvidia displacement.
The next scheduled milestone that could accelerate or reverse sentiment is Nvidia’s GTC conference, running March 16 through 19 in San Jose. For now, investors treating oil futures price as a headline risk are also being asked to weigh whether GTC reinforces Moore’s view that multi-year commitments and revised-up expectations will matter more than near-term macro swings. If the conference messaging supports the durability signals Moore cited, the stock’s 2026 performance gap could narrow in the months that follow.
