S&p 500 Futures face oil and jobs-data crosscurrents as traders seek clarity
Sunday at 9: 00 a. m. ET, s& p 500 futures were in focus after U. S. stocks closed lower for the week, with the S& P 500 down 1. 98% and the Dow Jones down 2. 95%. The key unresolved issue is whether Gulf-related shipping disruptions and a weakening U. S. labor picture will keep pushing markets in the same direction; tanker traffic and oil-price moves are the immediate, observable signals.
Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic is the near-term signal for S& p 500 Futures
War risk near the Strait of Hormuz was the week’s central confirmed driver of market stress, hitting ship flows and shaking the oil trade. Tanker traffic fell near 90% as shipping firms halted or rerouted cargo, and oil logged a record weekly surge of more than 35%, moving near $90 per barrel and later listed at $91. 27.
That shock created a visible split across sectors. Energy stocks rose with oil, with Exxon Mobil Corporation and Chevron Corporation both gaining as traders priced in tighter supply. Yet travel and cyclical shares lagged as fuel costs jumped, and airlines fell late in the week; United Airlines Holdings and Delta Air Lines were both down as jet-fuel economics tightened.
February U. S. jobs report and Fed rate-cut odds remain a contested market read
The U. S. jobs report added a second confirmed pressure point: the economy lost 92, 000 jobs in February, versus economists’ expectation for a 55, 000 gain. The jobless rate rose to 4. 4%, and prior-month job gains were cut by 69, 000.
Even with those data in hand, the policy interpretation remained unsettled in trading because oil’s surge introduces new price risk at the same time hiring appears to be weakening. Soon after the report, traders raised the odds of at least one Federal Reserve rate cut in June to about 67%, up from less than 40% before the data. Still, the extent to which that repricing holds depends on what happens next with energy costs and the Gulf supply chain.
Separately, the White House named Kevin Warsh as its pick for the next Fed chair, a confirmed development that may shape how investors frame the policy outlook. The effect on near-term pricing remained unconfirmed as of 9: 00 a. m. ET because no market-moving policy action was described alongside the announcement.
Nvidia, Broadcom and AI power commitments supported tech even as indexes fell
Despite the weekly declines in the major indexes, confirmed company news in the tech and AI space drove sharp individual moves. Nvidia Corporation posted a record quarter and announced plans to secure supply for new AI data centers, including investments of $2 billion each in Coherent Corp. and Lumentum Holdings Inc. to expand optical network gear used in high-speed AI systems.
Broadcom Inc. also beat quarterly views and said AI revenue rose to $8. 4 billion, more than double last year’s level. Broadcom set a $10 billion buyback plan and guided the next quarter to about $22 billion in revenue.
At the same time, Microsoft Corporation, Alphabet Inc., Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Oracle Corporation signed a White House pledge to fund new power supply and grid upgrades tied to AI data centers, with the stated aim of ensuring local power rates do not rise as AI demand grows. Policy risk remained part of the picture as U. S. officials weigh new export terms that could link AI chip sales by Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices to foreign investment pledges; any such terms were unconfirmed as of 9: 00 a. m. ET because no final decision or timetable was stated.
For now, the next confirmed focal point is the new week’s market watch on Gulf developments and the path of oil prices, with traders set to track tanker traffic as a concrete indicator of whether shipping disruptions are easing or intensifying. If tanker traffic recovers materially and oil stabilizes near recent levels, rate-cut odds that moved to about 67% for June are expected to remain a key pricing input in the days ahead.
