Joe Lunardi’s 2026 Bracketology: Seeds and Bubble Teams Post Duke vs. UNC

Emerson Raymont

Published: March 8, 2026 4:00 PM ET

Joe Lunardi’s 2026 Bracketology: Seeds and Bubble Teams Post Duke vs. UNC

Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology update reflects significant shifts in the NCAA tournament landscape following Duke’s recent victory over North Carolina. This victory solidified Duke’s position as one of the leading contenders for the 2026 NCAA tournament.

2026 Bracketology: Key Updates

As the tournament approaches, several teams are emerging as favorites while others fight to secure their spots. Here are the main developments:

Top Seeds

Duke remains a strong candidate for a No. 1 seed.
Michigan and Arizona are also projected as top seeds.
Florida has claimed the final No. 1 seed.

Notable Changes

UConn, previously considered a favorite, slipped after a loss to Marquette, losing their No. 1 seed status. Marquette’s win enabled St. John’s to secure the Big East regular-season title.

Bubble Teams and First Four Out

Lunardi has identified several teams on the bubble, including:

Indiana
Virginia Tech
New Mexico
Cincinnati

These schools are currently listed as the “first four out,” meaning they still have a chance but must perform well in upcoming games.

Last Four In

On the flip side, the “last four in” includes:

VCU
Auburn
Santa Clara
SMU

Auburn, despite a record of 16-15, is attempting to leverage its challenging schedule to secure a tournament berth.

Team Performance Insights

Indiana’s recent performance has been concerning, with an 18-13 record. Their struggles include a 91-78 loss to Ohio State. Similarly, Cincinnati has experienced setbacks following a notable upset against Kansas, losing to Texas Tech and TCU subsequently.

Santa Clara currently boasts a 24-7 record and will need success in the West Coast Conference tournament to bolster their NCAA tournament hopes. They are organizing for competition in the quarterfinal round on Sunday, making this a crucial moment in their campaign.

As we look ahead, the race for March Madness intensifies, with teams positioning themselves for the best possible outcomes in the 2026 NCAA tournament.