Oscars 2026 predictions spotlight record-setting “Sinners” and late-breaking races
Oscars 2026 forecasting sharpened Saturday at 11: 22 a. m. ET as longtime critic Richard Roeper laid out expected winners across best picture and the four acting categories, arguing that many top races remain unsettled just days before the ceremony. The outlook matters for viewers and industry watchers because final ballots are already in, locking in outcomes after a tight finish to voting.
Richard Roeper’s Oscars 2026 calls: “One Battle After Another” vs. “Sinners”
Roeper said he expects “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” to split the evening, with five total wins apiece, a projection that underscores how competitive the major categories appear heading into the show. He also predicted “Frankenstein” could take as many as four Oscars in craft categories, while “KPop Demon Hunters” is expected to win for best animated feature and original song.
Beyond those leading titles, Roeper wrote that nine other films or performances could win one Academy Award each. In his view, the number of major categories still “up for grabs” this late should make the ceremony one of the most entertaining and unpredictable in recent years.
“Sinners” sets a nominations record as Academy adds casting category
Even before winners are announced, this year’s Academy Awards have already made history. “Sinners” received 16 nominations, setting the record for the most nods and surpassing “All About Eve”, “Titanic” and “La La Land”, which each had 14.
The Academy also added best achievement in casting, marking the first new category introduced since best animated feature was added in 2001. The change expands the Oscar lineup at a moment when several marquee races are described as highly fluid heading into the final week.
Oscars 2026 voting timeline and late momentum from guild awards
Voting for the 2026 Oscars began on Feb. 26 and closed Thursday at 8 p. m. ET (5 p. m. Pacific Time). Roeper noted the timing is significant because many of the Academy’s approx. 10, 000 voters wait until the last day or two to cast ballots.
He also wrote that momentum gained or lost from the Producers Guild Awards and the Actor Awards can be a significant factor at the end of the season—especially for the latter—because actors make up the largest voting bloc.
One of the local angles highlighted in Roeper’s piece involved supporting actress nominee Amy Madigan, who grew up in South Shore and graduated from Aquinas High School, which is now defunct. Roeper also referenced her family ties to Chicago media through her father, John Madigan, described as a longtime journalist, and her role in “Uncle Buck, ” where he wrote she was “comedic gold” opposite John Candy.
Next: The 98th annual Academy Awards ceremony is a week away, with winners to be revealed after voting has already closed at 8 p. m. ET Thursday.
