Jesus Aguilar Listed at +170 as Su Mudaerji Favored Ahead of UFC 326 Flyweight Clash
Su Mudaerji and jesus aguilar meet on the UFC 326 Early Prelims in a three-round flyweight bout that has bettors and analysts focused on a stark physical mismatch. The outcome matters because the listed odds and statistical gaps suggest a clear strategic battle: distance striking for Mudaerji versus takedown and control for Aguilar.
Jesus Aguilar's Takedown Edge
Jesus Aguilar enters the Octagon with a 12-3-0 record and a recent run of form that includes four wins in his last five fights. Aguilar averages 1. 64 takedowns per 15 minutes and converted a high share of wrestling opportunities in past contests; his last win came by unanimous decision in round three over Luis Gurule. That ground focus is Aguilar’s clearest path: if he can close the space and execute 1–2 takedowns per round, he can neutralize extended striking exchanges and tilt rounds toward control and top position.
However, Su Mudaerji defends takedowns effectively, with a 71 percent takedown defense figure on record. The direct consequence is practical: successful sprawling and distance management by Mudaerji would reduce Aguilar’s opportunities to score on the mat and increase the likelihood of the bout remaining standing.
Su Mudaerji's Striking and Reach
Su Mudaerji, listed at 18-7-0 and 5'8", holds a 10-inch reach advantage over Aguilar (72" to 62") and a clear striking edge on paper. Mudaerji connects on roughly 4. 48 significant strikes per minute compared with Aguilar’s 2. 65, and posts higher accuracy—about 52 percent to Aguilar’s 40 percent. Those metrics compound: greater volume and accuracy make it easier for Mudaerji to score from distance, while the 10-inch reach difference increases the margin for landing strikes without immediate retaliation.
That combination of height, reach and output helps explain one betting market outcome: bookmakers list Mudaerji as the favorite, while DraftKings Sportsbook shows Aguilar as the +170 underdog. Doc’s Sports lists Mudaerji near -200 on the moneyline with Aguilar at +170. The pricing reflects how the statistical advantages could translate to control of the stand-up battle.
How Tactics and Recent Results Shape the Match
Both fighters arrive off unanimous decision victories in round three—Mudaerji over Kevin Borjas and Aguilar over Luis Gurule—so endurance and late-round execution are proven components for each camp. Mudaerji’s tendency toward decisions is notable: multiple UFC victories have come by decision, and DraftKings’ market gives the fight a -160 line to go to the judges versus +120 for a finish, signaling expectations for a full three-round contest.
Cause and effect are straightforward here: Mudaerji’s reach and higher strike rate make it easier to keep the fight at distance, which in turn limits Aguilar’s takedown attempts; with a 71 percent takedown defense, that defensive edge increases the probability of rounds scored standing. Conversely, if Aguilar can overcome that defense and secure multiple takedowns—leveraging his 1. 64 takedowns-per-15-minutes rate—he can shift scoring toward top control and ground activity, where his finishing attempts per 15 minutes are historically higher.
What makes this notable is the matchup’s binary nature: the fight appears likely to be decided by whether Aguilar can successfully penetrate Mudaerji’s range enough times to bring the bout to the mat. The interplay of reach, strike volume, takedown frequency and takedown defense creates a clear tactical chess match for three rounds on March 7, 2026, at UFC 326.
Odds, Venue and Broadcast Details
The bout is scheduled for the UFC 326 Early Prelims on Saturday, March 7, 2026, at T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, USA. Bookmakers and analytics outlets present a split view on how the fight unfolds: the moneyline and finish/decision markets reflect confidence that striking control could carry the day, while Aguilar’s ground metrics sustain him as a live underdog at +170. Fans and bettors will watch whether the fight follows the statistical script or turns on successful tactical adjustments from either corner.
For jesus aguilar, the pressure is clear—he must convert wrestling opportunities against a fighter who defends takedowns well and outstrikes most opponents at range. For Mudaerji, maintaining distance and leveraging reach and accuracy should maximize his path to a decision or a striking finish.
