UFC Fight Night 268: Vera vs. Martinez – Odds, Picks, and Predictions

Casey Halston

Published: February 28, 2026 12:33 PM ET

UFC Fight Night 268 features a compelling bantamweight clash between Marlon Vera and David Martinez on Saturday at Arena CDMX in Mexico City. This event, also referred to as UFC Mexico, promises excitement with a main card starting at 8 p.m. ET, following prelims that kick off at 5 p.m. ET. Fans can tune in on Paramount+.

UFC Fight Night 268: Vera vs. Martinez Odds, Picks, and Predictions

The fight marks a crucial moment for both fighters. Marlon Vera enters with a professional record of 23 wins, 11 losses, and 1 no contest. He has been struggling recently, suffering back-to-back defeats since a title fight loss against Sean O’Malley at UFC 299. His losses include a unanimous decision to Deiveson Figueiredo in August 2024 and a split decision to Aiemann Zahabi on October 18, 2025.

David Martinez, nicknamed “Black Spartan,” holds a record of 13 wins and 1 loss. He aims to further solidify his position in the octagon during his third UFC appearance. His last two fights were notable: a Round 1 KO/TKO victory against Saimon Oliveira on March 29, 2025, followed by a unanimous decision win over Rob Font on September 13, 2025, in San Antonio.

Fight Statistics

Marlon Vera: Reach advantage of 3 inches, 51.33% significant strikes accuracy, average of 0.49 takedowns with a 39.29% takedown accuracy rate.
David Martinez: 4.85 significant strikes landed per minute, 53.86% striking accuracy, yet no takedowns recorded so far.

Vera’s grappling skills could play a pivotal role in this matchup. With a track record of 10 submissions in 35 fights, his experience on the ground is a significant asset. The odds from BetMGM Sportsbook currently favor Martinez at -300, while Vera sits at +240, indicating a clear expectation of how the bout might unfold.

Picks and Predictions

As the fight approaches, experts suggest that Vera might deliver his best performance yet, given the stakes. He needs a victory to stay relevant in the UFC. His reach advantage and submission skills could be the deciding factors against an opponent who is still relatively new to the UFC scene.

For those considering bets, Vera by decision or technical decision offers an intriguing opportunity at +500 odds. Given Vera’s recent tendency to take fights the distance, this could be a viable option for bettors looking for better returns.

The odds for whether the fight will go the distance stand at Yes -350 and No +240. However, the substantial price for a decision means bettors may find more value in exploring the two-way moneyline or specific methods of victory.

Stay updated with more UFC Fight Night 268 insights and predictions at Filmogaz.com.