Nuggets Vs Thunder: nuggets vs thunder odds, prediction and best bets for Feb. 27, 2026

The nuggets vs thunder matchup on Friday draws attention for both team betting markets and player props. This preview highlights the lines, player form and one of the suggested player-prop bets tied to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s expected return.

Game odds and prediction

Lines remain fluid and please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. One listed market shows OKC at -114 odds to go over 120. 5 points, and that number factors into the preferred player prop in this piece.

Nuggets Vs Thunder player props

Even within a single game, betting markets are abundant: traditional markets like the spread or the total sit alongside a wide array of player-prop markets. Projections from a research model have been used to try to find value, and those projections informed the selections discussed below.

Johnson’s recent shooting form

After a slow start to his Nuggets tenure, Cameron Johnson is starting to pick it up, and the market may be a little slow to react. He was written up to hit two-plus threes in Denver’s last game, and he delivered, making three of six from downtown. That matchup context matters: Oklahoma City permits the sixth-highest three-point attempt rate (43. 9%). Over the last 30 games, the Thunder are giving up the third-most made triples per night to power forwards (3. 0) as well as the 11th-most made threes per game to small forwards (3. 0), so however Johnson is deployed he should be in a friendly spot.

In seven games since returning from injury, Johnson is shooting 38. 7% from three, and he has nailed at least two treys in three of his previous four games. Given that sequence, the expectation is that Johnson can continue to contribute from deep.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander return, assists

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to make his return today, though there is clearly a risk of some kind of minutes restriction. That said, the books appear to be pricing his prop lines as if he will handle close to his usual offensive load. He is the reigning MVP and, prior to going on the shelf, was distributing the rock at a high level with assist totals of nine, 13 and eight over his last three games.

With Jalen Williams still out, Gilgeous-Alexander returns to a Thunder offense that is playing well, particularly the likes of Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Joe — meaning SGA has plenty of weapons to pass to. Combined with the fact that Denver isn’t very good on defense, ranking 20th in defensive rating for the season, the pick here is for the reigning MVP to record at least six assists. With OKC listed at -114 odds to go over 120. 5 points, SGA to notch at least six assists is highlighted as the favorite bet in this game.

Promotions and timing

NBA Happy Hour is in effect: get THREE 30% profit boost tokens to use on any wagers between 6 p. m. and 7: 30 p. m. ET for any NBA games taking place on February 27th, 2026. That window and the promotional tokens may affect wagering behavior late in the day.

All injury news referenced here comes from the NBA's official injury report.

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Lines and player availability can change; bettors should confirm markets and injury statuses before placing wagers.