By Election Results show three-horse race and expose FPTP flaws in Gorton and Denton

The latest by election results in Gorton and Denton point to a three-horse race on Thursday 26 February, and campaigners say the contest is already highlighting limits of First Past The Post for voters in the constituency.

Polls put the seat in a three-way dead heat, making the contest nearly impossible to call and marking the biggest electoral test yet for Keir Starmer before the May local elections. The polling stalemate has turned attention to which of Labour, Reform UK and the Green Party can convert local support into victory in this once safe seat.

The vote is symbolic because of the threat Labour faces from Reform UK and the Greens in Gorton and Denton; a loss for Labour would revive scrutiny of Starmer’s decision to block Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, from contesting the seat. That single personnel decision has become one of the campaign’s defining storylines ahead of 26 February.

By Election Results put FPTP under the microscope in Gorton and Denton

Campaigners argue First Past The Post is letting down the people of Gorton and Denton, who will choose their Member of Parliament on Thursday 26 February. They point to the UK general election of 2024, when Labour secured almost two-thirds of MPs from just over one-third of votes, as evidence that the system produced a highly disproportional outcome.

Reform’s threat: Matt Goodwin, target list and momentum

A win for Reform UK’s candidate Matt Goodwin would be presented as proof that Nigel Farage’s poll lead reflects real voter intentions rather than mere protest, and Goodwin has repeatedly framed the fight as a referendum on Starmer’s leadership. Goodwin, a divisive, hyper-online candidate with family roots in Manchester who spent most of his adult years in the south-east of England, is central to Reform’s strategy in the seat.

Gorton and Denton sits 440th on Reform’s target list, an insider placed the seat at that ranking, and Reform expects at least 1, 000 activists to get out the vote — particularly people who do not usually vote, a group that helped deliver other by-election victories. The party’s past success includes the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, won almost a year ago by just six votes; party figures see a victory in Gorton and Denton as sustaining that momentum.

Green surge and the danger to Labour in urban seats

Polls and betting markets repeatedly put the Greens ahead, and a Green win would be read as proof that the party can convert protest into a serious progressive force. Hannah Spencer’s campaign is cited as enthusiastic, and Greens have repeatedly turned out large swathes of activists after working the seat from a base of zero.

Analysts point to the Green coalition’s potential to pull in former Labour voters — many but not all from the area’s large Muslim community, and voters such as students and young professionals in Levenshulme. If the Greens come second, they may argue Labour split the progressive vote; if Labour comes third it would intensify questions over Starmer’s ability to unite progressives against candidates like Goodwin.

Tactical voting, campaign tone and what voters hear

Where three or more parties compete, critics say FPTP produces winners with fewer than a third of local votes, effectively ignoring the ballots of more than two-thirds of people. With Labour, the Green Party and Reform UK all fighting the by-election very strongly, campaigners say it is highly plausible that ballots of a majority of voters will be effectively ignored under the current system.

That dynamic has pushed debate into tactical calculations: Labour and the Green Party have both sought to persuade voters they are the only option to "stop Reform". Labour attacks on the Greens have been described as vicious — targeting Green drug policy with claims the party would "sell legalised drugs to teenagers" and labelling the Green position on defence as "Putin’s useful idiots" — while the Greens reply with activist mobilisation on the ground.

How preferential voting would change the choice

Supporters of an alternative point to Scotland’s local elections, which use Single Transferable Vote: voters number the candidates on the ballot paper and, in local council by-elections, can put their genuine first choice as number one, knowing their vote can transfer to their number two if their first-choice has no chance and no candidate has a majority. Transfers continue until someone wins a majority.

Proponents say that preferential voting removes the prospect of unclear in the provided context.

The by-election on Thursday 26 February remains the immediate test. Results will be watched for their bearing on the expected May local elections and for what they mean for party strategies in urban seats and wider questions about the design of the electoral system.