Nvda posts stronger-than-expected Q4 and raises Q1 outlook, but stock reaction is muted
nvda reported fiscal fourth-quarter results after the bell on Wednesday, beating analysts on both the top and bottom lines and offering Q1 guidance that topped Wall Street estimates. The company’s data center strength and a raised outlook matter now because investors have not pushed the stock dramatically higher despite the numbers.
Nvda Q4 results, quarterly numbers and guidance
Nvidia reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1. 62 on revenue of $68. 1 billion. Wall Street had been anticipating EPS of $1. 53 on revenue of $65. 8 billion per analyst consensus estimates. For the same quarter last year, the company posted EPS of $0. 89 and revenue of $39. 3 billion. Management said Q1 revenue guidance would be between $76. 44 billion and $79. 56 billion, above Wall Street estimates of $72. 8 billion; that outlook does not include any potential revenue out of China.
Data center dominance and Colette Kress’s breakdown
Nvidia said its data center business delivered $62. 3 billion for the quarter, exceeding analysts' projections of $60. 2 billion. The company breaks down its data center business into compute, graphics chips and CPUs, and networking. Compute revenue grew 58% year over year, while networking rose 263% to $11 billion. CFO Colette Kress said hyperscaler revenue increased and remained the largest customer category at slightly over 50% of Data Center revenue, and that growth was led by the rest of the Data Center customers as revenue diversified.
Market response: stock moves, year-to-date and peers
Nvidia stock pared gains in premarket trading, rising 1% after an earlier 3% jump. Despite the company’s momentum, the stock was up just over 5% since the start of the year as of Wednesday afternoon. By comparison, Advanced Micro Devices was down roughly 1%, Broadcom was off about 3%, and Intel was up almost 27% so far this year.
Investor debate and Gene Munster’s view on AI timing
Deepwater Asset Management managing partner Gene Munster wrote in a blog post that the disconnect between Nvidia’s recent announcements and its stock performance comes down to whether investors think the AI trade is nearing an end or still getting started. He wrote, "The real debate is what growth looks like in 2027 and 2028. " He added, "Ultimately, investors have to decide what inning of the AI buildout we are in, if it's the fifth inning, 2027 growth should look more modest, and if it is the second inning, which I believe, Nvidia’s growth outlook over the next several years remains robust. "
Products, partnerships and upcoming events
Nvidia’s results arrive a few weeks before its GTC 2026 event in San Jose, Calif., where the company is expected to make major product announcements. The earnings follow the launch of the company’s latest AI superchip, Vera Rubin, during the CES technology conference in Las Vegas in January. Nvidia also expanded an agreement with Meta into a massive, multiyear deal that will have the chip maker provide Meta with both its Blackwell and Rubin AI processors, as well as the first major standalone deployment of its Grace CPU servers.
Gaming revenue and potential CPU plans
Outside the data center, Nvidia reported gaming revenue of $3. 7 billion versus estimates of $4 billion. Unnamed reports indicate Nvidia could launch its own CPU for laptops in the coming months, which would serve as a boost to the company's gaming revenue if it materializes. Meanwhile, hyperscalers including Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft plan to spend a collective $650 billion on AI capital expenditures in 2026 alone, a dynamic management cited as underpinning much of the current demand for Nvidia’s data center products.
