Gael Monfils to meet Vacherot after Vacherot defeats Coleman Wong (gael monfils)

Valentin Vacherot's first-round victory over Coleman Wong set up a round-of-16 meeting with gael monfils on Thursday at 12: 10 AM ET, with predictive simulations giving Vacherot a clear edge heading into the match.

Gael Monfils matchup and odds (gael monfils)

The round-of-16 clash is scheduled for Thursday at 12: 10 AM ET. An advanced predictive model that simulated the pairing 10, 000 times currently assigns Valentin Vacherot a 70% chance of winning the match and a 66% chance of taking the first set. The same model gives Gael Monfils a 53% probability of covering a +3. 5 games spread and places a 53% likelihood on the match finishing under 22. 5 games.

Despite the model's higher raw win probability for Vacherot, the model's value analysis lists Gael Monfils as the single best bet at the available odds, reflecting a gap between win probability and implied market pricing. The scheduled time and the simulation outputs make Thursday's match the clearest immediate indicator of who might advance deep into this event.

Vacherot's win over Coleman Wong

Valentin Vacherot advanced after a come-from-behind victory over Coleman Wong, who dropped a one-set lead and lost 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 in just under two hours. Wong had entered the main draw as a lucky loser after a withdrawal by another player and had been beaten 6-3, 6-0 in qualifying by Patrick Kypson.

Wong, listed at world No. 125, had reached a career-high ranking after a quarter-final run at the Delray Beach Open the previous week. He declined to comment on his decision to remain in the tournament area amid recent unrest in the region.

Tournament backdrop and next steps

The tournament in Acapulco is holding its 33rd edition; it began as an ATP 250 event in 1993 and later upgraded to ATP 500 status. The event is taking place against a backdrop of heightened security concerns after the killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as "El Mencho, " which prompted speculation about potential cancellations. Tournament officials have released a statement saying things would be "proceeding normally. "

With Vacherot moving into the round of 16, the immediate indicators to watch are the scheduled match time, the simulation probabilities, and whether Monfils can translate market value into an on-court victory. If Vacherot sustains the form shown in his first-round win, the model's probabilities suggest he will enter the match as the favorite; if Monfils covers the early games spread, the contest is likely to be tighter than raw win probabilities imply.

• Key takeaways: Vacherot favored (70%); Monfils is the model's value pick; match at 12: 10 AM ET Thursday.