Ethereum Price Appears Bullish Only on an Inverted Chart as Whale Losses Mount
ethereum price remains under pressure even as one technical view shows a bullish path — but that optimism exists only on an inverted chart, and on-chain stress has pushed ETH beneath major holder cost bases. The token slipped below the $1, 980 threshold on the 21st of February, compressing profitability across large holders.
Ethereum Price on the inverted chart
Analyst Mizer presented an inverted chart that paints a bullish picture for ETH while warning the standard view still shows a downtrend unless key resistance is reclaimed; the higher-time-frame structure, he said, is a distribution phase following consistent breakdowns since the $5, 000 peak. Mizer highlighted a long-standing parabolic curve off that top that price has respected for months and said the setup remains invalid unless the parabola is decisively broken and price holds above it.
Mizer pointed to a purple line on his chart marking a support/resistance flip and a small blue box representing the current consolidation after a strong impulse move. He outlined two primary scenarios from that consolidation: continuation after a shallow pullback, or a fake breakdown followed by a swift reclaim before the next leg higher on the inverted chart — moves that would translate into further downside for ETH on a normal chart. His immediate target sits around $1, 700 and a larger extension targets near $1, 400 as the final objective.
Founder sales and whale losses push ETH below key levels
Downside momentum has coincided with resumed founder distribution and widening unrealized losses among whale cohorts. Vitalik conducted smaller sales a fortnight earlier, and a recent withdrawal of 3, 500 ETH from Aave, worth approximately $6. 95 million, was noted as part of ongoing distribution flows. Spot is trading below the $2, 075 mega-holder cost basis, and unrealized losses now touch whale groups ranging from 1, 000–10, 000 to 100, 000+ ETH wallets.
That spread of unrealized pain is paired with varying holder health: long-term holders hover near breakeven while short-term cohorts remain deeply underwater near 0. 5, a dynamic that has compressed profitability since prices moved below $1, 980 on February 21. The withdrawals and staggered founder sales were described as paced rather than a single liquidation, aligning with restrained realized-cap trends that show limited aggressive distribution.
Market odds, targets and what traders will watch next
Derivatives and market-probability measures show traders pricing heavier downside: Kalshi odds assign an 85% probability of breaching $1, 750, a 49% chance of a decline below $1, 250, and a 30% chance of sub-$1, 000 levels. Those probabilities come as derivatives deleveraging and thinning liquidity compounded macro pressure on price structure.
With immediate technical objectives set at $1, 700 and $1, 400 on the inverted view, the confirmed next milestones for watchers are clear: traders will monitor whether price reclaims the key flip zone marked by the purple line and whether the parabolic curve that formed off the $5, 000 peak is broken. If the flip zone holds and the parabola remains intact, Mizer’s inverted bullish path stays valid; loss of that zone would invalidate the setup and signal a broader reversal on the higher timeframe.
