Belmont Bruins at Murray State Racers prediction, pick for NCAAM on Sunday 2/15/26
A top-two Missouri Valley Conference clash takes center stage Sunday, Feb. 15, 2026 (ET), when Belmont visits Murray State. The line is tight — Murray State listed as a 1. 5-point favorite with moneylines roughly -122 for the Racers and +102 for the Bruins and a game total near 166. 5 — but Belmont’s recent form and a dominant win over these same Racers make this a matchup that could swing the other way. Here’s a breakdown of the matchup, the players who matter most, and our betting pick and score projection.
How the matchup shapes up
These teams already met on Jan. 31, with Belmont turning that meeting into a statement victory, 103-86. Belmont stretched the lead as high as 34 and drilled threes at an elite clip in that game, shooting 50% from beyond the arc. Belmont’s season record sits at 23-4 overall, 13-3 in league play, and the Bruins have won 10 of their last 11 games. Offensively they’re among the nation’s better units, averaging 83. 7 points per game and ranking highly in team field-goal and three-point percentage, while also generating a top-15 mark in assists per game.
Murray State is 19-8 overall and 11-5 in conference action. The Racers score at a robust clip as well — they average 84. 9 points per game — but recent form is mixed: Murray State has dropped five of its last eight games. Defensively, the Racers have struggled relative to the Bruins; opponents are averaging north of 79 points per game against Murray State. The overall profile is a shootout candidate: both teams can put up points, and the prior meeting produced 189 total points, well above the current total line.
Key players and matchup edges
Belmont’s offense runs through several reliable weapons. Tyler Lundblade has been the engine, leading the conference with over 34 minutes per game while averaging 16. 1 points and hitting nearly 40% from three. Nic McClain offers playmaking alongside double-digit scoring and more than six assists per game, and Sam Orme, Drew Scharnowski and the supporting cast provide scoring and rebounding balance. Belmont’s offensive efficiency and three-point accuracy are the matchup edges most likely to determine the outcome.
Murray State counters with Javon Jackson, who leads the team at 16. 5 points per game, and bench standout Roman Domon, averaging nearly 14 points and five rebounds while spacing the floor. Fredrick King controls the glass and rim protection with a team-high rebounding rate and block numbers. If Murray State can force turnovers, get offensive rebounds and convert transition chances, they can neutralize Belmont’s perimeter rhythm and push the pace to their favor.
Betting pick and projection
The narrow line reflects how close these teams are on paper, but matchup context favors Belmont — particularly given the earlier 103-86 result. Belmont’s efficient shooting and depth counter Murray State’s scoring and home-court advantages. Expect another uptempo game, with both teams capable of surpassing the listed total.
Pick: Belmont Bruins to win outright (moneyline). Projection: Belmont 86, Murray State 82. The Bruins’ effective perimeter shooting and ball movement should be enough to edge the Racers in a competitive road environment. For total bettors, a lean toward the over is reasonable if line movement or situational factors don’t change significantly before tipoff.
Game-watch note: check injury reports and the final line closer to tip for the sharpest view on whether Belmont remains the best play or if a late tilt back toward Murray State makes a cover or small-spread play preferable.
