Elise Mertens Favored Over Marie Bouzkova in Dubai Round of 64
Elise Mertens will meet Marie Bouzkova in the Round of 64 at the Dubai Tennis Championships on Sunday, February 15, 2026 (ET). Market prices list Mertens as the clear favorite, but recent form and matchup details suggest a competitive opening-round encounter at the Aviation Club Tennis Centre.
Odds and predictions
Moneyline quotes for the matchup place Mertens at -175 and Bouzkova at +135; those prices translate to an implied win probability of roughly 63. 6% for Mertens. A separate predictive model that ran 10, 000 simulated matchups gives Mertens a 55% chance to advance, with Bouzkova on 45%—a narrower gap than the moneyline alone suggests.
Bookmakers’ pricing and independent simulations both favor the Belgian, but the gap is not large enough to rule out an upset. The market appears to reward Mertens’ experience and recent consistency, while the simulation results reflect variables such as current form, head-to-head tendencies, and surface history that could tighten the contest.
Form, recent results and matchup dynamics
Bouzkova has struggled for consistent results so far this season. Her best recent highlight remains last year’s title run at her home tournament in Prague, but this year she exited early at a couple of events, including a second-round loss at the Australian Open and a straight-sets first-round defeat in a Middle East warm-up event. Those results suggest she has yet to find a stable rhythm on tour this season.
Mertens arrives with steadier momentum. She reached the round of 16 at the Australian Open, her deepest run at Melbourne since a 2018 semifinal appearance, and has shown an ability to construct points effectively from the baseline. A loss in a recent warm-up event ended her run in a later round, but she demonstrated the kind of ball control and depth that typically pays dividends on Dubai’s hardcourts.
On paper, Mertens’ strengths—consistent serve placement, solid return positioning and the ability to redirect pace—match up well against Bouzkova, who relies on power and timing. If Bouzkova can keep her first-serve percentage high and take initiative with aggressive groundstrokes, she can neutralize Mertens’ superior court coverage. Conversely, if Mertens controls the depth of rallies early she can force shorter points and exploit Bouzkova’s inconsistency.
What to watch during the match
Service games: Both players will need to protect their service holds. Bouzkova’s return games can be potent when she reads the serve early, but double-faults and missed first serves have cost her momentum in recent matches. Mertens’ serve is less explosive but more reliable; expect her to press for breaks by extending rallies and targeting Bouzkova’s backhand.
Transition and defense: Mertens’ defensive skills and ability to turn defense into offense are key factors. If she calmly handles Bouzkova’s power and forces longer exchanges, the Belgian’s superior point construction should tilt the balance.
Mental composure: Early breaks or tight tiebreak situations could determine the outcome. Bouzkova will need to convert break points and avoid drifting in crucial games, while Mertens must stay aggressive without becoming predictable.
The matchup promises a competitive opener at the Dubai Tennis Championships. Mertens enters as the favorite on odds and in simulations, but Bouzkova has the tools to make it a test. Expect a tactical battle with momentum swings early in the match.
