Saint Mary's Gaels Favored at Pacific in WCC Showdown Saturday Night
Saint Mary's (22-4) heads to Stockton to face Pacific (17-10) in a West Coast Conference matchup Saturday, Feb. 14, 2026, with tip scheduled for 10: 30 p. m. ET. The Gaels enter as roughly 7. 5-point favorites with the total hanging near 135. 5 points. This meeting carries weight in the middle of the WCC standings, where both teams sit inside the top half and are jockeying for postseason positioning.
Game snapshot: records, lines and matchups
Saint Mary's arrives on a three-game win streak and has won 13 of its last 15, standing at 11-2 in conference play. The Gaels are a balanced offensive team that ranks among the nation’s best in three-point accuracy and ranks highly on the defensive end, allowing just 64. 9 points per game.
Pacific has been up-and-down but is coming off consecutive league wins and sits 8-6 in WCC play. The Tigers score about 74. 7 points per game and defend well, holding opponents to roughly 68. 0 points on the season.
Projected lines put Saint Mary's as the favorite by 7. 5 points with the moneyline favoring the Gaels heavily and Pacific available at a long underdog price. The total is set in the mid-130s, reflecting expectations for a relatively low-scoring, defensive slugfest.
Keys for Saint Mary's: defense, boards and star scoring
The Gaels' identity is defensive balance and perimeter efficiency. They rank inside the top 30 nationally in three-point percentage and remain stingy on the other end, with top-25 marks in defensive rating and opponent field-goal percentage. That mix makes Saint Mary's difficult to break down: opponents struggle to score efficiently, while the Gaels can stretch the floor from deep.
Paulius Murauskas leads the way offensively at about 18. 7 points per game, with Joshua Dent orchestrating the offense near 13 points and a team-high assist rate. Andrew McKeever gives Saint Mary's a clear rebounding edge, pulling down nearly 9. 5 boards per contest, which helps create second-chance opportunities and limits Pacific’s transition game.
Containment of Pacific's perimeter shooters will be crucial. If Saint Mary's forces contested looks and keeps the glass clean, they should control the tempo and keep the score in line with the modest total.
Keys for Pacific: get hot from deep and control tempo
Pacific relies on the scoring punch of Elias Ralph and the perimeter prowess of TJ Wainwright; both can change the complexion of a game with hot shooting nights. The Tigers shoot well from distance as a team and will need to stretch the defense to prevent Saint Mary's from clogging the paint and getting easy defensive rebounds.
Defensively, Pacific fares well in limiting opponent scoring overall, but the team has been vulnerable at times from deep on the opponent three-point percentage metric. To beat Saint Mary's, Pacific must win on the glass, convert transition opportunities and force turnovers to generate easy offense. Winning the turnover battle and converting on early offense will be pivotal, especially if the Gaels slow the game down.
Prediction
This shapes up as a classic WCC defensive contest. Saint Mary's advantages — superior rebounding, a deeper rotation and a consistently stingy defense — give them the edge. Pacific's path to an upset runs through a hot shooting night from beyond the arc and winning the turnover battle, but both teams' defensive rankings suggest scoring will be limited.
Pick: Saint Mary's by 8. Final projected score: Saint Mary's 72, Pacific 64 (total 136). Given how both teams defend and the Gaels' ability to control possessions, the safer bet is toward the lower side of the total, with a preference for the under in this matchup.
