Minnesota 2026 Poll: Democrats Hold Edge as Michele Tafoya Trails in Senate Tests
A new statewide survey of Minnesota likely voters finds Democratic candidates leading their Republican counterparts in hypothetical matchups for governor, U. S. Senate and a generic state legislative contest. The results show Republican Michele Tafoya trailing two prominent Democratic contenders in separate Senate tests while voters name threats to democracy their top concern heading into 2026.
Democrats lead in top statewide matchups
The poll shows broad Democratic advantages in several head-to-head scenarios. In a hypothetical contest to replace the retiring governor, a Democratic U. S. senator tops State House Speaker Lisa Demuth by 51% to 38% and would lead MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell by 53% to 31%. A generic ballot for the Minnesota House favors the Democratic-Farmer-Labor candidate 49% to 42% over a Republican, with all 134 House seats up for grabs in 2026 and the chamber currently evenly split.
Michele Tafoya trails in two Senate matchups
In the poll’s Senate testing, Republican Michele Tafoya falls behind two Democratic contenders. Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan leads Tafoya 47% to 41%, with 12% supporting another option or undecided. In a separate head-to-head, Rep. Angie Craig holds 47% to Tafoya’s 40%, with 13% elsewhere or undecided. The results suggest Tafoya faces an uphill climb to win statewide support if she becomes the GOP nominee.
Voter priorities: threats to democracy top the list
Respondents identified threats to democracy as the leading issue in Minnesota, with 28% citing it as their top concern. Immigration (17%) and the economy (16%) followed. Nearly half of Democrats cited threats to democracy as their chief worry, and independents showed significant concern as well. Among Republicans, immigration ranked as the plurality concern at 31%.
Immigration, ICE and public reactions to shootings weigh heavily
The survey finds voters view Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s presence in communities as more harmful than beneficial by a 60% to 36% margin. When asked whether they prefer the Trump administration’s immigration policies or the Biden administration’s, 42% chose the Trump-era approach, 35% favored the Biden-era approach and 23% chose neither. On the question of eliminating ICE, 46% opposed abolition, 42% favored it and 12% were unsure.
The poll also gauges public reaction to two high-profile federal-agent shootings in Minneapolis. A majority judged the officers’ actions in both incidents not justified: 57% said the officer’s actions were not justified in the shooting of Renée Good, and 61% said the same in the shooting of Alex Pretti. A separate question found 59% of voters disapproved of the federal administration’s handling of the Pretti shooting.
Approval ratings and methodology
Voter views of national and state leaders were mixed. Fifty-six percent of Minnesota voters disapproved of the job the president is doing, while 39% approved. For the outgoing governor, 47% disapproved of his job performance and 41% approved. The survey of 1, 000 likely Minnesota voters was conducted Feb. 6–8, 2026 (ET) and carries a credibility interval similar to a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The results sketch a political landscape in which Democrats hold current advantages across several statewide tests, immigration and law-enforcement issues remain divisive, and concerns about threats to democratic institutions have climbed to the top of many voters’ lists ahead of the 2026 cycle.
