Cardi B’s Surprise Appearance in Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl Halftime Show Spurs Debate

Cardi B made a notable appearance during Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show, prompting a discussion regarding the nature of her participation. The Grammy-winning artist shared the stage with prominent figures like Karol G, Young Miko, Jessica Alba, and Pedro Pascal. However, the ambiguity around whether her involvement constituted a true ‘performance’ sparked debates among prediction markets.

Debate Over Cardi B’s Role

Her participation in the Super Bowl stirred controversy in trading platforms, specifically Kalshi and Polymarket. Following the event, a trader from Kalshi lodged a complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The dispute hinges on how the prediction market classified Cardi B’s presence.

Market Reactions

Kalshi and Polymarket operate on event contracts, where traders can bet on specific outcomes. Kalshi’s market for “Who will perform at the Big Game?” saw over $47.3 million in bets, while Polymarket registered more than $10 million in volume. Despite Cardi B dancing during the show, her actual singing ability remained questionable.

• Kalshi’s ticket resolution left ‘No’ holders at $0.74 and ‘Yes’ holders at $0.26, with all users receiving refunds.
• Polymarket asserted a ‘yes’ answer, although it faced challenges that delayed final determinations.

In the aftermath, the trader pursuing the CFTC complaint alleged that Kalshi breached the Commodity Exchange Act. This trader, who held a ‘Yes’ position, is seeking $3,700 in damages.

Response from Prediction Markets

The Super Bowl significantly impacted prediction market trading volumes. Kalshi reported a daily record exceeding $1 billion, marking a staggering increase of over 2,700% from the previous year. Season-long trading for Super Bowl futures reached $828.6 million, up more than 2,000% from last year’s figures.

Future Forecasts

The dramatic surge in activity led to some processing challenges, prompting Kalshi to issue reimbursements and credits to affected users. Co-founder Luana Lopes Lara acknowledged the unexpected traffic spikes.

In a broader context, Robinhood Markets highlighted the strength of prediction markets during its earnings report. CEO Vlad Tenev expressed optimism about the future, predicting a potential “super cycle” in prediction markets could drive trillions in annual volume as significant events, like the Olympics and World Cup, approach.