Long Beach State vs. Cal State Fullerton: Prediction, key matchups and what to expect Thursday night
Long Beach State basketball returns home for a high-pace Big West test against Cal State Fullerton on Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026, with tip set for 10 p.m. ET. With a thin spread and a total set high, the matchup profiles as a track meet decided by turnovers, free throws and second-chance points.
Tip-off snapshot
The line sits close to a pick’em, with the spread hovering around 1.5 points and the total planted in the mid-150s. That pricing reflects the stylistic clash: Fullerton thrives in a fast game, while Long Beach State is comfortable pushing tempo but must balance aggression with glass work and composure in late-clock situations on its home floor.
Recent form and momentum swings
Long Beach State enters after a narrow 77–74 setback at UC San Diego, a game that still showed scoring balance and late-game shot creation. Shaquil Bender poured in 22, while Petar Majstorovic added 19 and earned double-digit trips to the line—an encouraging sign for a team that will need free throws to steady stretches of volatility. Cal State Fullerton, meanwhile, is coming off an 82–66 win over CSU Bakersfield, paced by a sharp shooting night from Landon Seaman, who finished with 18 and three assists. The Titans’ recent results mirror their identity: pace, spacing and a willingness to hunt threes early in possessions.
Tempo, whistles and the math of a shootout
Expect a brisk game. Fullerton pushes toward the upper tier nationally in possessions per night, while Long Beach State sits in a comfortably up-tempo lane. On paper, a mid-70s possession count is in play, which creates a wide runway for points. Neither defense has consistently squeezed efficiency: both teams allow north of one point per defensive trip and permit elevated effective field-goal percentages, the kind of profile that turns a few hot minutes into a double-digit swing.
The foul line could be the hidden tiebreaker. Fullerton generates free throws at a strong rate and converts well at the stripe, while Long Beach State also earns trips and has a reliable closer in Majstorovic, who is near automatic late. If the whistle is active, the total has added paths to clear, and composure at the line could separate a one-possession game in the final minute.
Key players to watch
For Cal State Fullerton, the scoring load spreads across multiple creators. Joshua Ward paces the Titans in points and playmaking minutes, Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro offers a downhill counter, and Seaman’s efficiency has been a steadying force. Wing defender Christian Williams supplies disruptive hands and the occasional eruption from deep—he has already flashed a six-three ceiling in a single night this season.
Long Beach State’s attack leans on shot-making and pace from its lead trio. Gavin Sykes sets the scoring tone, Majstorovic punishes mismatches and keeps the team’s late-game FT% high, and Rob Diaz III provides a secondary scoring valve. Bender’s recent surge adds a needed downhill gear; if his rim pressure draws help, Long Beach State’s spacing improves and its offensive rebounding lanes open.
The margins: turnovers and the glass
This is where the game likely swings. Long Beach State forces turnovers on roughly one in five defensive trips, and those live-ball changes become instant runouts at home. However, the Beach also surrender an elevated opponent offensive rebounding rate, making stops difficult to finish. Fullerton’s offense can be turnover-prone, but it counters with volume threes at a strong clip. If the Titans keep giveaways around their season average, the three-point math can offset any fast-break leaks. Conversely, if Long Beach State strings together takeaways and limits second chances, the home side’s transition offense could tilt the final score by a handful of possessions.
Filmogaz pick
With pace projected to surge and both teams living in the mid-150s total range, this matchup carries multiple paths to a high score: quick-trigger threes, frequent free throws, and extra possessions the offensive glass. In a near coin-flip, the slightly steadier perimeter shooting and balanced creation lean toward the visitors—so long as turnovers don’t spike.
Prediction: Cal State Fullerton 83, Long Beach State 81
Lean: Over the posted total in the mid-150s
