February Sees Lowest Mortgage Rates

Jordan Hartwell

Published: February 9, 2026 8:44 PM ET

February has historically shown the lowest mortgage rates, making it a prime time for homebuyers and those considering refinancing. Analysis of data from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) from 1972 to the present confirms this trend.

Historical Mortgage Rate Averages

Over the past 50 years, February has averaged a mortgage rate of 7.62% for the 30-year fixed loan. Here’s a comparison of average rates:

February: 7.62%
January: 7.64%
March: 7.70%

This data indicates that, while January and March also present relatively low rates, they do not match February’s levels. It’s notable that rates typically increase as the year progresses, with peaks often occurring in late spring and summer.

Peak Rates and Seasonal Trends

Homebuyers often face their highest mortgage rates during the peak selling season of May and June, with average rates reaching 7.79%. Interestingly, this coincides with an uptick in home sales, suggesting buyers may experience challenges with higher financing costs during this period.

Recent Variations in Mortgage Rates

Looking at recent years, a divergence from the typical trend emerged in 2024 and 2025, where September recorded the lowest mortgage rates instead of the traditional February. Contributing factors included market responses to Federal Reserve policies and economic reports that influenced investor sentiment.

In 2025, mortgage rates spiked again in January and February due to political and economic uncertainties. The overall trend points to a less favorable mortgage market in the spring months.

February 2026 Outlook

This February remains a significant month to watch. Upcoming economic reports, including the delayed jobs report and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, could influence rates dramatically. If these reports indicate soft economic conditions, mortgage rates might dip to their lowest levels in three years, potentially even falling below 6% for the 30-year fixed mortgage.

Conclusion: Navigating Mortgage Rates

For those in the market to purchase a home or refinance, February presents a strategic opportunity. However, it’s essential to remain vigilant about economic indicators and trends that can impact lending rates throughout the year. Historical patterns show that while winters often yield the best rates, opportunities can arise at unpredictable times. Homebuyers should always be prepared to act when favorable rates emerge.