Vietnam’s Deep-Seated Strategic Distrust of the US

The complex relationship between Vietnam and the United States is underscored by a profound sense of strategic distrust on Hanoi’s part. This sentiment has roots in both historical context and current geopolitical dynamics.

Vietnam’s Economic Ties with the US

Despite lingering distrust, Vietnam has leveraged its economic interests to foster closer ties with the U.S. The nation holds the position of having the third-largest trade deficit with the United States, trailing only China and Mexico.

• Vietnam actively seeks favorable trade agreements.
• The country has engaged with U.S. initiatives, including Donald Trump’s Board of Peace.
• Vietnam rolled out significant support for a Trump-branded golf project to attract investment.

Deep-Seated Strategic Distrust

Recent revelations underscore the persistent apprehension Vietnam harbors toward U.S. intentions. A classified document from August 2024, disclosed by Project88—a human rights NGO—highlights Vietnam’s concerns regarding potential military threats.

• The document outlines strategies for a potential maritime invasion by U.S. and allied forces.
• This intelligence report predates the second term of Donald Trump.
• It also coincides with heightened military tensions, such as the January 3 abduction of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces.

The Impact of US Military Policy

The first Trump administration is noted for its aggressive military posture. Vietnam’s strategic analysis indicates that the U.S. aimed to:

• Deploy military power in the Asia-Pacific region.
• Incite an arms race among regional players.
• Expand the market for American military equipment and technology.

In conclusion, while Vietnam seeks to enhance economic relations with the U.S., a fundamental mistrust persists. This dynamic presents a unique challenge as both nations navigate their complex relationship, balancing cooperation with caution.