Alberta Set to Surpass British Columbia’s Population by 2050

Recent projections indicate a significant shift in Canada’s demographic landscape. By 2050, Alberta is expected to overtake British Columbia in population size, according to Statistics Canada. This change is attributed to various factors, including immigration patterns and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Population Projections for Alberta and British Columbia

Statistics Canada periodically updates its population estimates. The latest projections examine demographic trends from 2025 to 2050 for provinces and territories, and from 2025 to 2075 nationally. For Alberta and British Columbia, the findings are clear; Alberta is projected to exceed British Columbia’s population in nearly all scenarios analyzed.

Key Projection Scenarios

• Low Growth Scenario: Alberta’s population will reach approximately 6.458 million by 2050. British Columbia’s population is projected at 5.822 million.
• High Growth Scenario: Alberta is estimated to have a population of 8.132 million, while British Columbia will have around 7.533 million.
• Fast Aging Scenario: Predictions suggest Alberta will house about 6.634 million residents compared to British Columbia’s 6.025 million.
• Slow Aging Scenario: In this scenario, Alberta’s population may grow to 7.909 million, while British Columbia will reach 7.265 million.

Overall Population Growth in Canada

Beyond provincial projections, the overall Canadian population is expected to increase from an estimated 41.7 million in July 2025 to between 44.0 million and 75.8 million by 2075. The medium-growth scenario estimates that Canada could reach around 57.4 million residents in the same timeframe.

Throughout these projections, Ontario and Quebec are expected to remain Canada’s most populous provinces. Despite that, Alberta’s rapid growth has been notable in recent years. Significant increases have been recorded in major urban centers across the province. For example, one metropolitan area has experienced a remarkable 19 percent growth in population over the past five years, highlighting Alberta’s thriving communities.

These findings shed light on the shifting demographics within Canada. As Alberta is set to surpass British Columbia’s population by 2050, it marks a noteworthy transition in the country’s provincial dynamics.