Lightning vs Stars today: puck drop time, projected lines, and what to watch in Dallas

The Lightning vs Stars matchup arrives this afternoon in Dallas with playoff-caliber stakes. Tampa Bay rolls in with a lengthy points streak despite a shootout loss last time out, while Dallas is trying to steady home form and bank momentum before a demanding road swing. Expect a high-tempo matinee with elite wing play, top-tier goaltending, and special teams that could tilt the scales.

Puck drop and key details

• Date: Sunday, January 18, 2026

• Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas

• Time: 2:00 p.m. ET / 1:00 p.m. CT / 7:00 p.m. GMT

Both teams are in the upper tier of their divisions, and both have relied on late-game resilience in recent weeks. Tampa Bay’s point harvesting since late December has been fueled by stars finishing chances in tight games; Dallas has lived on depth scoring and timely saves while waiting for injured regulars to cycle back.

Projected lines and starting goalies

Tampa Bay Lightning (projected)

• Forwards: Guentzel – Paul – Kucherov | Hagel – Cirelli – Goncalves | Girgensons – Gourde – Holmberg | Bjorkstrand – Finley – James

• Defense: Moser – Raddysh | D’Astous – Černák | Carlile – Crozier

• Goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy (starter); backup: Halverson

• Notables: Several key injuries on the back end and at center have forced creative combinations, but the top unit continues to drive offensive pace.

Dallas Stars (projected)

• Forwards: Steel – Johnston – Rantanen | Robertson – Hintz – Duchene | Back – Hryckowian – Bourque | Benn – Faksa – Blackwell

• Defense: Lindell – Miro Heiskanen | Harley – Petrovic | Capobianco – Lundkvist

• Goalie: Jake Oettinger (starter); backup: DeSmith

• Notables: Heiskanen’s expected return stabilizes breakouts and the first power-play unit; top six blends craft (Duchene, Robertson) with speed (Hintz, Johnston).

(Lineups are subject to pregame changes.)

Recent form and stakes

• Tampa Bay: An 11-game win surge was snapped in a shootout, but the club still rides a robust points stretch. Five-on-five, chance creation remains strong on the first line; the question is secondary finishing if the Stars lock down the slot.

• Dallas: Home inconsistency has crept in, yet underlying numbers point to a team generating quality looks off the rush. Defensive structure improves markedly when Heiskanen eats heavy minutes and Harley carries pucks cleanly through the neutral zone.

Why it matters: Both teams are tracking for top-three finishes in their divisions, but the margin for home-ice in Round 1 is thin. A regulation win here is a classic four-point swing against another Cup-caliber side.

Tactical chessboard: Lightning vs Stars

1. Kucherov vs. Heiskanen/Lindell
   The league’s premier manipulator against Dallas’ top pair. If Tampa Bay can free Kucherov on the right half-wall, backdoor seams to the bumper or far-post tap-ins follow. Dallas must angle him outside early and deny the middle with stick detail.

2. Oettinger’s rebounds vs. net-front layers
   Tampa Bay excels at layered traffic and second chances. Dallas’ defense and weak-side forward must collapse quickly to clear loose pucks; otherwise Hagel and Paul feast in the blue paint.

3. Stars’ rush game vs. Vasilevskiy’s depth
   Dallas thrives on quick-strike entries led by Hintz and Johnston. Vasilevskiy’s hallmark is aggressive depth that shrinks shooting angles—watch for Stars shooters to delay and find late trailers like Duchene or Robertson.

4. Special teams swing
   Tampa Bay’s first unit is lethal, but Dallas counters with a top-end flank shooter and a net-front menace. The whistle rhythm will matter; a tightly called first period favors Tampa Bay’s set plays, while a free-flowing game helps Dallas’ 5-on-5 speed.

Numbers that frame the matchup

• Clutch time: Both clubs rank among the league’s best in points gained when tied after two periods. Overtime discipline and line matching could decide it.

• Faceoffs in the offensive zone: Tampa Bay leans on Cirelli’s draws to spring designed looks; Dallas must avoid icings that gift set plays to the visitors.

• Blue-line usage: Expect 24–27 minutes for Heiskanen and heavy situational minutes for Černák against the Hintz line.

What to watch in the first 10 minutes

• Dallas forecheck cadence: If the Stars turn Tampa’s defense quickly and force chipped exits, they’ll stack early zone time.

• Lightning breakout fixes: With injuries on the blue line, Tampa Bay may use more center-lane supports and short seams through the middle rather than glass-and-out.

• Goaltender touch: Early confident handles by Oettinger and Vasilevskiy can nullify dump-and-chase pressure.

Prediction and pressure points

On paper this reads like a one-goal game tilted by goaltending and a single power-play conversion. If Dallas’ top six wins the rush battle and Heiskanen controls entries, the home side nudges ahead. If Kucherov dictates on the half-wall and Tampa Bay’s depth wins the net-front, the visitors carry it late. Edge: tight, low-to-mid scoring, with third-period shot blocks and crease scrums deciding which contender pockets the statement win.