2026 Oscars: Predicting the Best Supporting Actor Winner
The race for the Best Supporting Actor at the 2026 Oscars is heating up, with several contenders showcasing exceptional performances. Critics and award season events have already provided a glimpse into who might dominate the nominations.
Current Contenders for Best Supporting Actor
Jacob Elordi’s standout performance in “Frankenstein” has significantly increased his chances of securing an Academy Award nomination. His recent win at the Critics Choice Awards (CCA) marks a crucial step towards Oscar recognition.
Historically, CCA winners often translate their success to Oscar nominations, with a notable 20 out of the 32 past winners ultimately winning the Oscar. Stellan Skarsgård’s win for “Sentimental Value” at the Golden Globes also places him as a strong candidate for the Oscars. In fact, history shows that only two actors in the last 50 years won a Golden Globe but failed to earn an Oscar nomination.
Key Players in the 2026 Oscar Race
- Stellan Skarsgård – “Sentimental Value” (NEON)
- Jacob Elordi – “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
- Benicio Del Toro – “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros)
- Paul Mescal – “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
- Sean Penn – “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros)
- Miles Caton – “Sinners” (Warner Bros)
- Delroy Lindo – “Sinners” (Warner Bros)
As the nominations approach, Paul Mescal and Sean Penn have also positioned themselves well for a nomination. Mescal shines in “Hamnet,” while Penn features prominently in “One Battle After Another.”
Controversial Candidates
The situation becomes more intriguing with actors like Miles Caton and Delroy Lindo in the mix. Neither made significant waves early in the voting season until Caton’s unexpected SAG nomination. Lindo, however, has been recognized on the BAFTA longlist, adding tension to the competition.
Despite their potential, predictions suggest both actors may just miss out on a nomination unless “Sinners” performs remarkably well during the voting process.
Final Predictions for 2026 Oscar Nominations
| Rank | Name | Film | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stellan Skarsgård | Sentimental Value | CCA, GG, BAFTA longlist |
| 2 | Benicio Del Toro | One Battle After Another | CCA, GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist |
| 3 | Jacob Elordi | Frankenstein | CCA, GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist |
| 4 | Paul Mescal | Hamnet | CCA, GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist |
| 5 | Sean Penn | One Battle After Another | CCA, GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist |
With the Oscar nominations on the horizon, the competition remains fierce. The upcoming awards season is sure to shape the final outcomes for Best Supporting Actor.
