Ben Zauzmer’s Math Predicts 2026 Oscars Nomination Odds

As the 2026 Oscars approach, the competition for Best Picture is heating up. Ben Zauzmer’s mathematical model offers intriguing predictions based on current awards season data and historical trends. His analysis identifies leading contenders poised for nomination this year.

Current Favorites for Best Picture

As of January 17, 2026, several films are emerging as frontrunners in the Best Picture race. The following titles lead Zauzmer’s predictions:

• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• Frankenstein
• Sentimental Value

Among these, “One Battle After Another” stands out, having secured critical accolades from the Critics Choice and the Golden Globes, alongside nominations from major guilds like the Directors Guild and the Producers Guild. However, historical precedence shows that leading films can still miss out on the Oscar despite strong early performances, as seen with past nominees like *Brokeback Mountain* and *The Social Network*.

Prediction Methodology

Zauzmer’s model utilizes current award data, weighing each input according to its past predictive power in the Oscar categories. This approach has successfully tracked nominees since the Academy expanded its Best Picture lineup to ten films. Historically, about 90% of the predicted top candidates receive nominations.

Top Contenders and Their Odds

According to the latest analysis, the following films are almost guaranteed nomination:

• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• Frankenstein

“Sentimental Value” and “Train Dreams” are also seen as strong candidates. On the other hand, “It Was Just an Accident” has a 66% chance for a nomination, while “Bugonia” sits just above 50%.

Director’s Race Insights

In the Best Director category, Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryan Coogler are considered likely nominees for their respective films, “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners.” Chloé Zhao, formerly a winner, also has strong odds with “Hamnet.” Late-stage predictions suggest that up to two additional nominees will emerge from a closely contested group.

Acting Categories Predictions

The Best Actor race features well-known talents like:

• Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
• Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
• Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
• Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
• Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon

In the Best Actress category, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) and Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) appear to control the narrative. Additionally, emerging talents like Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another) and seasoned performers like Emma Stone (Bugonia) are also in the mix.

Supporting Categories

The Best Supporting Actor field appears particularly competitive, with Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn from “One Battle After Another” currently tied as frontrunners. In contrast, Teyana Taylor leads the Best Supporting Actress category for her performance in the same film.

Screenplay Contenders

Adapted and original screenplay categories are also heating up. The following films are currently strong contenders for the Best Original Screenplay nomination:

• Sinners
• Marty Supreme
• Sentimental Value
• It Was Just an Accident
• Weapons

Interestingly, a notable contender, “The Secret Agent,” has struggled to gain similar traction for its screenplay despite being highly regarded in foreign language categories.

Zauzmer’s predictions, while data-driven, reflect the unpredictability of awards season. As we approach the nomination announcement, surprises may still arise, making the final race to the Oscars an exciting spectacle.