Alexandre Muller vs. Rafael Jodar: Predictions & Odds for 2026 ATP Marrakech
The quarterfinal between Alexandre Muller and Rafael Jodar takes place Friday in Marrakech. Filmogaz.com previews the match at the ATP Grand Prix Hassan II.
Model projection
Dimers’ advanced tennis model favors Rafael Jodar to win. The simulation assigns Jodar a 59% chance to take the match.
The same model gives Jodar a 56% probability to win the first set. Muller has a 53% chance to cover a +2.5 games spread.
The model also indicates a 53% likelihood that total games will fall under 22.5.
Betting odds (U.S.)
| Bet Type | Alexandre Muller | Rafael Jodar |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +150 | -178 |
| First Set | +137 | -175 |
| Game Spread | +2.5 (-110) | -2.5 (-122) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-105) | u22.5 (-122) |
Odds were current at publication time. Markets can shift before match start.
Picks and best-bet considerations
Match-winner probabilities and American odds point toward backing Jodar. The model advantage supports that view.
For alternative plays, Muller +2.5 shows model value at 53%. The under 22.5 games outcome also shows a 53% edge.
How to use this information
Combine these probabilities with personal bankroll rules. Odds and projections should guide, not dictate, bets.
Filmogaz.com recommends checking live lines before wagering. Conditions and odds may change quickly at ATP Marrakech in 2026.
