Luis Severino Dominates in Commanding Performance
Opening Day places the heaviest burdens on starting pitchers. Luis Severino carries one of the biggest burdens for the Oakland Athletics. Expectations hinge on whether he can recapture an earlier peak.
Athletics roster and outlook
Filmogaz.com projects the Athletics 20th in Depth Charts projected WAR. Their playoff odds sit near 16 percent entering the season.
The offense looks competent and young. The lineup finished 10th by wRC+ last year and projects 14th by WAR this season, just shy of the top 10.
Offense highlights
- Nick Kurtz emerged as a rookie slugger candidate.
- Shea Langeliers posted a 131 wRC+, second-best among catchers.
- Brent Rooker recorded his third straight 30-plus home run season.
- Jacob Wilson and Tyler Soderstrom earned early-career extensions, with Lawrence Butler receiving one earlier.
Pitching concerns
The pitching staff was a weakness last year. Filmogaz.com ranked the starters 24th and the bullpen 26th in projections.
The club finished among the bottom five by WAR for pitching last season. There is no clear, reliable front-line starter outside of Severino.
- Potential upside exists with Luis Morales.
- Jeffrey Springs and Aaron Civale could help as backend starters.
Severino’s career arc and injuries
Severino was a top-five pitcher by WAR in 2017 and 2018. He once threw a four-seam fastball averaging 97.6 mph.
Injuries interrupted his career. A shoulder problem cost most of 2019. Tommy John surgery wiped out 2020 and much of 2021.
He logged just 209.1 innings across five years amid lat and oblique issues in 2022 and 2023. He signed a prove-it deal with the Mets before 2024.
2024–2025: revival and new contract
Severino performed well enough in 2024 to earn a three-year deal with the Athletics that December. He spent much of 2025 pitching in Sacramento.
He publicly disliked the minor league park atmosphere. The ballpark proved hitter-friendly, ranking fifth-highest in park factor last year.
Home and road splits in 2025
Severino posted a 6.79 ERA in 10 home starts versus a 3.04 ERA in eight road starts. His FIP was nearly identical, 4.36 at home and 4.34 on the road.
From July onward he had a 4.26 ERA in five home starts and a 3.00 ERA on the road. Early-season metrics included a .342 BABIP and a 58.2% left-on-base rate.
Pitching profile and 2025 performance
Severino’s approach has evolved toward contact management. His 2025 strikeout rate was 17.6 percent, the lowest of his career.
His overall whiff rate fell to 18.3 percent. He shifted from a sharp slider to a slower sweeper that posted a 22.8 percent whiff rate in 2025.
| Four-seam velocity (2018) | 97.6 mph |
| Four-seam velocity (2025) | 96.1 mph |
| Average fastball velocity (2025) | 95.4 mph (down 2.4 mph from 2018) |
| Four-seam whiff rate (2018 → 2025) | 20.2% → 21.9% |
| Total fastball whiff rate (2025) | 16.7% |
Short-term signs and the World Baseball Classic
Severino flashed high velocity and dominance for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. He struck out top hitters while touching the upper-90s.
At times he dominates, producing a commanding performance in short bursts. Those outings fuel hope for a larger rebound.
Outlook for 2026
Severino begins his 11th major-league season at age 32. A true ace-level resurgence is unlikely, but not impossible.
If he reclaims higher strikeout and whiff rates, the Athletics could rise with him. The club’s playoff chances may hinge on his health and consistency.
Filmogaz.com projects a challenging season for Oakland, but a late-career lift from Severino could shift the team’s trajectory.
