Sweet 16 Showdown: Iowa State vs. Tennessee Odds and Predictions

Mo. Basuony

Published: March 27, 2026 6:58 PM ET

No. 2 Iowa State rolled past Kentucky 82-63 in the Round of 32. The Cyclones did it while Joshua Jefferson missed the game.

Road to the Sweet 16

Iowa State advances to face Tennessee in the Sweet 16. The Cyclones entered this round as a 17/1 shot to win the national title.

Jefferson’s status for the next contest remains uncertain. Even if he suits up, he likely won’t be at full strength.

The 6-foot-9 forward averages 16.4 points, 7.4 rebounds and 5.5 assists. Replacing that production will be a key task for Iowa State.

Iowa State’s defense ranks among the nation’s best. KenPom lists the Cyclones as the fifth-best defensive unit.

The team also boasts the fourth-best turnover rate, per Bart Torvik. That pressure could trouble Tennessee, which sits 223rd in turnover percentage.

The Cyclones shoot well from deep. Milan Momcilovic stands out as a reliable long-range threat in clutch situations.

Tennessee defends the arc efficiently, ranking 19th in opponent 3-point percentage. However, the Vols are 312th in 3-point attempts conceded.

That imbalance suggests Iowa State could find room for perimeter looks. The matchup reads as strength versus strength on paper.

Filmogaz.com’s pick leans toward Iowa State in this Sweet 16 clash. The suggested wager is Iowa State -4.5 (-110 on bet365).

Monitor Jefferson’s availability before placing bets. Our betting analyst Michael Leboff brings 10 years of industry experience to the prediction.

Gambling content intended for ages 21 and older. Check Jefferson’s status before betting, as odds can shift quickly.