Nvidia Stock: Record $215.9bn year, but investor scepticism and mixed signals linger
NVIDIA’s fiscal 2026 results — including $215. 9bn in annual revenue and a $68. 1bn fourth quarter — have reshaped expectations around nvidia stock even as investors and critics press the company on deal structures, China sales and how demand will hold up.
Client Challenge and investor scepticism
One contextual headline in the coverage is titled "Client Challenge, " and investor scepticism is a clear thread through the company’s results. Investors have expressed concern about the scale of spending on artificial intelligence technology, and critics have raised the spectre of "circular financing" in which NVIDIA’s investments in other companies could be clouding perceptions of how robust AI demand really is. The firm has been scrutinised over its expanding web of deals with other companies.
Fourth quarter detail: $68. 1bn for quarter ended January 25, 2026
NVIDIA reported record revenue for the fourth quarter ended January 25, 2026, of $68. 1 billion, an increase of 20% from the prior quarter and up 73% from a year earlier. For the quarter, GAAP gross margin was 75. 0% and non-GAAP gross margin was 75. 2%. GAAP earnings per diluted share for the quarter were $1. 76 and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share were $1. 62.
Fiscal 2026 totals, shareholder returns and small dividend
For fiscal 2026 overall, NVIDIA posted revenue of $215. 9 billion, up 65% from a year ago, with GAAP gross margin of 71. 1% and non-GAAP gross margin of 71. 3%. For fiscal 2026, GAAP earnings per diluted share were $4. 90 and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share were $4. 77. During the year NVIDIA returned $41. 1 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and cash dividends, and as of the end of the fourth quarter it had $58. 5 billion remaining under its share repurchase authorization. it will pay a quarterly cash dividend of $0. 01 per share on April 1, 2026, to shareholders of record on March 11, 2026.
Nvidia Stock, valuation and role in the AI buildout
NVIDIA is described as the world’s most valuable publicly traded company, with a stock market value of around $4. 8tn, and it has become a central player in the buildout of AI infrastructure. The company supplies sophisticated chips to leading AI model developers including OpenAI and Meta. Jensen Huang, NVIDIA’s founder and CEO, said, "Computing demand is growing exponentially" and added that "Our customers are racing to invest in AI compute - the factories powering the AI industrial revolution and their future growth. " In extended commentary he said the "agentic AI inflection point has arrived, " cited Grace Blackwell with NVLink as "the king of inference today" and said Vera Rubin will extend that leadership, noting enterprise adoption of agents is "skyrocketing. " Gene Munster, manager partner at Deepwater Asset Management, wrote that "AI is accelerating faster than people not using these tools can grasp, " marking continued bullish views even as others raise questions.
China sales, H200 chips and missing China guidance
NVIDIA’s outlook released midweek did not include expectations about chip revenue in China. Last month, the Trump administration began allowing NVIDIA to sell its H200 chips — described as NVIDIA’s second-most advanced type — to Chinese customers under certain conditions. This week, a US Commerce Department official told lawmakers that none of those H200 chips have yet been sold to Chinese customers.
Conference call, accounting changes, non-GAAP measures and outlook
NVIDIA said it will conduct a conference call with analysts and investors to discuss its fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 financial results today at 2 p. m. Pacific time (5 p. m. Eastern time). The company noted a live webcast will be available on NVIDIA’s investor relations website and that the webcast will be recorded and available for replay until the company’s conference call for its first quarter of fiscal 2027. Colette Kress, NVIDIA’s executive vice president and chief financial officer, provided commentary on the quarter that the company made available through its investor channels.
Beginning in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, NVIDIA will include stock-based compensation expense in its non-GAAP financial measures; the company described stock-based compensation as a foundational component of its compensation program to attract and retain world-class talent. NVIDIA listed the non-GAAP measures it uses to supplement GAAP results, including non-GAAP gross profit, non-GAAP gross margin, non-GAAP operating expenses, non-GAAP operating income, non-GAAP other income (expense), net, non-GAAP net income or earnings, non-GAAP net income per diluted share, and free cash flow. reconciliations for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 adjust GAAP measures to exclude stock-based compensation expense, acquisition-related and other costs, and other gains/losses frunclear in the provided context.
The company provided an outlook reference for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 but the specific line items for that quarter are unclear in the provided context. For the full year fiscal 2027, NVIDIA said GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates are expected to be between 17. 0% and 19. 0%, excluding any discrete items and material changes to NVIDIA’s tax environment. Investors and analysts will be parsing these elements as they consider the near-term path for nvidia stock.
