Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Nearing MVP Ineligibility as 65-Game Rule Upends Odds
Nikola Jokic is confronting a new obstacle in the MVP race: he has missed 16 games this season and would be unable to win the award if he misses two more contests because of the NBA’s 65-game eligibility rule. That dynamic has changed how the market and voters must weigh production, games played and durability, with Jokic currently sitting at No. 2 in the consensus MVP odds.
Nikola Jokic's MVP standing: stats, games missed and odds
Nikola Jokic remains one of the league’s most productive players on the court. He has 10. 5 win shares and a win-shares rate of 0. 349 per 48 minutes, and he has missed 16 games this season. His box-score production has been elite: averaging 28. 8 points, 12. 5 rebounds and 10. 5 assists while shooting 58. 4 percent from the field and 42. 1 percent from three-point range. He is positioned second in the consensus MVP odds at +270 and is chasing another award that would add to an already successful résumé.
Even with those numbers, the 65-game threshold is binary: miss two more games and the statistical case becomes moot for award eligibility. That immediacy places a premium on availability, even for a player producing at a historically high level when on the floor.
How the 65-game rule is reshaping the MVP race
The 65-game rule, instituted before the 2023-24 season to encourage more regular availability from star players, is now reshaping who can actually win awards. Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, another frontrunner, has missed 10 games and currently leads the league in win shares with 11. 4 and 0. 336 win shares per 48 minutes. If the two top producers fall below the 65-game threshold, the field of eligible candidates tightens dramatically.
Several top players are flirting with or already beyond the cutoff: one star has missed 12 games, another 13, another 14, and two high-profile players are already disqualified after missing 18 and 25 games, respectively. Victor Wembanyama can miss four more games and still qualify, and his per-game production has closed the gap in impact metrics: he has needed three games to generate roughly the same win shares that the Thunder and Nuggets stars produce in two.
Odds, alternatives and the risk of a misrepresentative MVP
The odds market reflects both on-court excellence and the availability cliff. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is listed as the favorite at -125, with Nikola Jokic next at +270 and Cade Cunningham rounding out the top three at +550. Those numbers illustrate how tight the race has become when playing time thresholds are enforced alongside traditional production metrics.
The combination of elite production and injury-related absences raises a distinct possibility: if the league’s most valuable contributors fall short of the games-played requirement, a player who was less impactful on a per-game basis could inherit the award. That outcome would decouple the season’s awards from pure impact statistics and, for some observers, risk producing a result that feels misaligned with how the season actually unfolded.
What to watch next
- Games missed totals for leading candidates: the difference between eligibility and disqualification is measured in a small number of games for several contenders.
- Health updates for Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: each additional absence has outsized implications for award math.
- Movement in MVP odds: as availability shifts, betting and consensus lines are likely to respond quickly.
Recent developments indicate that the interplay between availability and value will continue to dominate the MVP conversation. Details may evolve as players are re-evaluated and as the season progresses, but the present landscape makes clear that the 65-game rule is having an immediate and controversial impact on how the most valuable player is determined.
