Shai Gilgeous-alexander tops MVP odds as 65-game rule threatens eligibility
shai gilgeous-alexander is the consensus favorite for the NBA MVP at -125, but a string of missed games and the league’s 65-game requirement have put him — and fellow frontrunner Nikola Jokić — at real risk of becoming ineligible just as the race tightens.
Shai Gilgeous-alexander leads the market at -125
The Thunder guard is listed as the favorite in the latest consensus MVP odds at -125 while Nikola Jokić sits second at +270 and Cade Cunningham is third at +550. Oklahoma City holds the best record in the league at 44-14, and Gilgeous-Alexander has been the engine behind that mark, averaging 31. 8 points, 6. 4 assists and 1. 3 steals per game while shooting 55. 4 percent from the field and 39. 0 percent from three.
Still, availability has become the defining caveat. Gilgeous-alexander missed his 10th game of the season and has compiled 11. 4 win shares, at 0. 336 win shares per 48 minutes. Coach Mark Daigneault said simply, “He doesn’t want to miss games. ” Gilgeous-Alexander is out with an abdominal strain and will be re-evaluated at the end of the week, a timeline that is likely to cost him at least one more contest.
65-game rule could remove top performers
The NBA introduced the 65-game threshold to incentivize players to appear more often, but it now threatens to disqualify some of the season’s best contributors. Jokić has missed 16 games yet still ranks among the leaders in impact, with 10. 5 win shares and 0. 349 win shares per 48 minutes. If he misses two more games he would drop below the 65-game cutoff and become ineligible for MVP consideration.
The rule has already disqualified notable stars: one player has missed 18 games and another has missed 25 games this season. Other contenders — Victor Wembanyama, Luka Dončić, Kawhi Leonard and Devin Booker — are all flirting with the cutoff as well, raising the possibility that players with superior per-minute production could be barred from awards because of missed games.
Immediate consequences and what’s next
The immediate consequence is straightforward: if either Gilgeous-alexander or Jokić falls under 65 games, the MVP market tilts to players who have logged more appearances. So far this season, Wembanyama has produced win shares at a rate that lets him match the Thunder and Nuggets stars in fewer games; Cade Cunningham sits among the top contenders while leading his team to a 42-14 record and averaging 25. 3 points and 9. 8 assists.
For now, the clock is literal. Gilgeous-Alexander’s abdominal strain will be re-evaluated at the end of the week, and Jokić would need to avoid missing two more contests to preserve eligibility. The way those health updates fall will determine whether the league’s 65-game rule changes the award’s outcome or simply punishes the season’s most valuable performers for time missed through injury.
Next on the calendar: Gilgeous-Alexander’s medical re-evaluation at the end of the week and the remaining regular-season games that will decide who reaches the 65-game threshold.
