Championship Table: Opta supercomputer projects final standings after recent wins
Opta’s modelling has produced a fresh picture of the championship table after a dramatic weekend of results, with Portsmouth moving clear of danger and Preston North End suffering late derby heartbreak. The predictions aim to show where sides such as Middlesbrough, Coventry and Ipswich could finish in May.
Pompey lift clear of danger
Pompey moved six points clear of the relegation zone with a 3-1 win over Millwall on Saturday. It was a fantastic week in the capital for Pompey, who followed up a midweek win at Charlton Athletic with the 3-1 victory over third-placed Millwall.
Despite a quiet first half, Gustavo Caballero opened the scoring with his goal for the Blues since his January signing, before John Swift netted a second soon after. Although Casper De Norre pulled a goal back for the Lions, Marlon Pack restored the Blues’ two-goal lead with 23 minutes remaining. Pompey were able to hold on to the all-important three points, which now lifts them into 19th and crucially six points clear of the relegation zone.
The games keep coming thick and fast for Portsmouth, with a trip to sixth-placed Wrexham coming up on Tuesday before welcoming fifth-placed Hull City to Fratton next Saturday. Opta has used performance-related data to predict how the final Championship table could look at the end of the season, and it offers an idea of where Mousinho’s troops could finish in May.
Preston's derby late heartbreak
PNE suffered late heartbreak against Blackburn Rovers on Friday evening, losing 1-0 in the Lancashire derby. With the scores remaining goalless deep into stoppage time, Yuki Ohashi headed in a 96th-minute winner to steal the points. The defeat drops the Lilywhites down to 10th in the standings, with the gap to the play-offs now three points following a 5-3 win for Wrexham on Saturday.
Paul Heckingbottom’s men are back on the road in midweek as they face Swansea City before returning to Deepdale next Saturday to welcome Millwall. Opta’s performance-based modelling sets out where North End are currently expected to finish in May. Next PNE read: Preston North End fail miserably on derby night as job done by Blackburn Rovers again.
Opta's Championship Table predictions
With the FA Cup fourth round in the history books, Opta’s supercomputer has focused on the league. Every team has played at least 30 times this season, some have played 31, and most have played 32, meaning teams have between 14 and 16 games remaining. That small margin of fixtures leaves little room for error in the title, automatic promotion and play-off race.
Opta’s projections are built on form and remaining schedules and aim to illustrate the final championship table with just over a couple of months remaining in the campaign.
Middlesbrough, Coventry and title race
Middlesbrough take on Coventry City on Monday night in what the preview calls quite easily the most important game of the campaign. Regardless of whether the Sky Blues complete the league double over Boro, Opta still has Kim Hellberg's side finishing top of the pile come May.
Middlesbrough have been described as more than impressive since Hellberg came in following the 4-2 defeat against Coventry in late November. Barring a barren run of no goals in four games over the Christmas and New Year period, Boro have won every game under the Swedish boss, evaporating the 10-point lead that the Sky Blues had on them at the time of his arrival. There is still work to do, even having reached the summit, but Opta feels Middlesbrough have what it takes to ride it out and become Champions.
Coventry, Ipswich and play-off picture
Despite the ground Coventry has given up in this title race over the last few months, Opta still believes Frank Lampard's side have enough to finish in the automatic promotion places. Since the start of December, the Sky Blues have picked up the 18th-most points in the division, so the fact that they remain in a relatively healthy position is a testament to how dominant they were in the opening stages of the campaign. Coventry needs to rediscover that dominance soon if they are to continue to reside in the top two and avoid chasing promotion in the play-offs for the third time in the last four seasons.
Ipswich Town are the side with games in hand over their promotion rivals. After being knocked out of the FA Cup by Wrexham on Friday night, they now have one main focus: finishing in the top two once again. However, Opta does not believe they can pull through and predicts they will fall agonisingly short of those goals. You would back the Tractor Boys in the play-offs, and Ipswich fans should feel confident of their promotion chances, whether that be automatically or a Wembley trip in late May.
Millwall, Preston and late-season shape
Millwall are the current third-placed side, having leapfrogged Ipswich following a 2-1 win at Sheffield Wednesday over the weekend, while Kieran McKenna's side were in cup action. Millwall hold an eight-point lead over Preston North End, who sit just outside the top six, and Opta believes the Lions will hold those below them at arm's length and finish in the top four.
It would cap off a remarkable regular season for Alex Neil's side. Alex Neil's team have not finished in the second-tier play-offs since they finished fourth in the 2001/02 campaign, when the division was still branded the First Division. With a goal difference currently of only +4, the present Preston position is said to bear resemblance to Huddersfield Town in 2016/17.
Photograph credit: Stephen Flynn
Pompey and Preston's recent results, the late drama at Deepdale and the compressed fixture list all feed into Opta's picture of the final championship table as the season heads into its final weeks.
