Anthony Hernandez and Sean Strickland Headline UFC Houston Fight Night
anthony hernandez meets Sean Strickland in a five-round middleweight main event at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, a top-5 showdown with potential title contention on the line Saturday night.
Anthony Hernandez vs. Sean Strickland: five-round middleweight main event
Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez (15-2, 1 NC) and Sean Strickland (29-7) square off as No. 4 and No. 3 contenders, respectively, on the six-fight main card. Strickland, 34, makes his return after more than a year out of the cage; he last competed in early February 2025 and lost to then-champion Dricus du Plessis in a failed bid to regain the UFC middleweight title. Strickland has won four of his past six bouts and scored an upset of Israel Adesanya to win the belt in 2023, with six of his seven most recent UFC wins coming by decision.
Anthony Hernandez’s run and finishing résumé
anthony hernandez, 32 and a California native, has been on a torrid pace since 2021, stringing together eight consecutive UFC wins and recording six finishes. His streak features bonus-winning stoppages of Roman Dolidze, Michel Pereira and Roman Kopylov, underlining the finishing potency he brings into the Toyota Center main event.
Odds, co-main and model projections
Hernandez opened as the -270 favorite for the main event while Strickland sits at +220 as the underdog. The co-main features welterweights Geoff Neal (16-7) and Uros Medic (12-3); Neal is a -198 favorite despite losing three of his last four bouts and will be fighting in his home state as an Austin native. The lone heavyweight bout listed for the Fight Night card is Serghei Spivac vs. Ante Delija at -118.
Mike McClure’s computer model runs 10, 000 simulations for every fight, playing each simulation round-by-round with dynamic win probability, round-by-round finish calculations that include KO/submission timing, accumulating damage factors that increase finish likelihood in later rounds and fighter-specific finishing tendencies such as power punchers versus grapplers versus decision fighters. The model was backtested against more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and showed more than 18 units of profit — a 6. 1% ROI. The model also hit Justin Gaethe to win outright at +195 and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324. One of the model’s top picks for Saturday is the Over 1. 5 rounds (+4. 2% edge) in Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic, a wager that returns +130; Mike McClure said, "The defensive metrics and pacing profiles suggest exchanges will be more measured early which increases the chance the fight extends. " The model also targets several underdogs and a best bet that returns over +500.
Full card highlights and start times
The UFC Houston preliminary card starts at 5 p. m. ET on Paramount+, with the main card beginning live at 8 p. m. ET on Paramount+ and free for all subscribers. The main-card matchups include the middleweight headline of Strickland vs. Hernandez and the co-main Neal vs. Medic as part of a six-fight main card.
Other matchups and early results from the night
Fight-night listings include: Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa (featherweight); Serghei Spivac vs. Ante Delija (heavyweight); Jacobe Smith vs. Josiah Harrell (welterweight); Zachary Reese vs. Michel Pereira (middleweight); Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal (welterweight); Ode Osbourne vs. Alibi Idiris (flyweight). Early results posted from the card show Jocelyne Edwards def. Nora Cornolle submission (rear-naked choke) at 2: 44 of R2, Punahele Soriano def. Ramiz Brahimaj split decision (29-28 All), Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani def. Phil Rowe split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28), Jordan Leavitt def. Yadier de Valle unanimous decision (29-28 All) and Carli Judice def. Juliana Miller unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27).
Uncrowned provided live results, round-by-round updates, start time and highlights for the Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez fight card at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.
The main card begins at 8 p. m. ET on Paramount+; fans can watch the six-fight main card live and follow the round-by-round action as the night unfolds.
